There have been calls for cutting off the Gaza Strip's electricity supply for some time now as a response to the frustrating and incessant Qassam rocket attacks. Until recently, however, they were viewed as heavy-handed proposals by ministers on the right. Only after Vice Premier Haim Ramon called for cutting off Gaza's electricity supply two weeks ago, thereby making front-page headlines in Yedioth Ahronoth, was the idea manifested in a cabinet decision. Yesterday's decision is an attempt by the government to throw a bone to residents of Sderot and other members of the public who are angry at the rocket attacks. But it contains any operational elements, only declarations - namely, the usual threats against Hamas. The electricity supply will continue, at least until a Qassam claims casualties. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Ehud Barak are not interested in an escalation in Gaza. They have plenty to do with the tension in the north, and they would like the diplomatic process to continue. They are also not convinced that "a major ground operation" in the strip would, in one fell swoop, solve the south's security problems. The interesting aspect of the cabinet decision is its timing: It happened on the day U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in the region for talks with Olmert and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas. Once, Israel preferred not to adopt aggressive resolutions when senior American officials were visiting. But while Rice was not enthusiastic about the threat to impose sanctions on Gaza's civilian population, according to one Israeli official who met her, she chose not to make a big deal out of it. She has a more important goal: promoting the upcoming international peace summit in Washington as much as possible. Rice's main message, which she reiterated during her meetings in Jerusalem yesterday, is that the summit cannot end without substantive achievements. She is not interested in an event that receives a great deal of press coverage but is empty of content - a mere photo op with the president. In principle, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni agrees with Rice, but she warned against raising expectations so high that they end in disappointment. Rice tends to side with Abbas, who is threatening not to participate in the summit if there is no agreement on the "core issues" and no genuine progress toward establishing a Palestinian state. The Palestinians want a concrete Israeli commitment, but as always, Israel prefers to make general declarations and postpone discussion of the details to a later date. This disagreement is no cause for panic. The real negotiations have not yet started, and the two months that remain before the summit are an eternity in the world of diplomacy. It is hard to imagine that Olmert and Abbas would dare to insult President George Bush, who initiated the summit, by sabotaging it because of a dispute over the formulation of an agreement of principles. Abbas needs Bush's support to survive in power, and Olmert wants Bush to deal with the Iranian threat.
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By: Amira Hass
Date: 27/05/2013
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Slain Bedouin girls' mother, a victim of Israeli-Palestinian bureaucracy
Abir Dandis, the mother of the two girls who were murdered in the Negev town of Al-Fura’a last week, couldn't find a police officer to listen to her warnings, neither in Arad nor in Ma’ale Adumim. Both police stations operate in areas where Israel wants to gather the Bedouin into permanent communities, against their will, in order to clear more land for Jewish communities. The dismissive treatment Dandis received shows how the Bedouin are considered simply to be lawbreakers by their very nature. But as a resident of the West Bank asking for help for her daughters, whose father was Israeli, Dandis faced the legal-bureaucratic maze created by the Oslo Accords. The Palestinian police is not allowed to arrest Israeli civilians. It must hand suspects over to the Israel Police. The Palestinian police complain that in cases of Israelis suspected of committing crimes against Palestinian residents, the Israel Police tend not to investigate or prosecute them. In addition, the town of Al-Azaria, where Dandis lives, is in Area B, under Palestinian civilian authority and Israeli security authority. According to the testimony of Palestinian residents, neither the IDF nor the Israel Police has any interest in internal Palestinian crime even though they have both the authority and the obligation to act in Area B. The Palestinian police are limited in what it can do in Area B. Bringing in reinforcements or carrying weapons in emergency situations requires coordination with, and obtaining permission from, the IDF. If Dandis fears that the man who murdered her daughters is going to attack her as well, she has plenty of reason to fear that she will not receive appropriate, immediate police protection from either the Israelis or the Palestinians. Dandis told Jack Khoury of Haaretz that the Ma’ale Adumim police referred her to the Palestinian Civil Affairs Coordination and Liaison Committee. Theoretically, this committee (which is subordinate to the Civil Affairs Ministry) is the logical place to go for such matters. Its parallel agency in Israel is the Civilian Liaison Committee (which is part of the Coordination and Liaison Administration - a part of the Civil Administration under the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories). In their meetings, they are supposed to discuss matters such as settlers’ complaints about the high volume of the loudspeakers at mosques or Palestinians’ complaints about attacks by settlers. But the Palestinians see the Liaison Committee as a place to submit requests for permission to travel to Israel, and get the impression that its clerks do not have much power when faced with their Israeli counterparts. In any case, the coordination process is cumbersome and long. The Palestinian police has a family welfare unit, and activists in Palestinian women’s organizations say that in recent years, its performance has improved. But, as stated, it has no authority over Israeli civilians and residents. Several non-governmental women’s groups also operate in the West Bank and in East Jerusalem, and women in similar situations approach them for help. The manager of one such organization told Haaretz that Dandis also fell victim to this confusing duplication of procedures and laws. Had Dandis approached her, she said, she would have referred her to Adalah, the Legal Center for Arab Minority Rights in Israel, which has expertise in navigating Israel’s laws and authorities.
By: Phoebe Greenwood
Date: 27/05/2013
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John Kerry unveils plan to boost Palestinian economy
John Kerry revealed his long-awaited plan for peace in the Middle East on Sunday, hinging on a $4bn (£2.6bn) investment in the Palestinian private sector. The US secretary of state, speaking at the World Economic Forum on the Jordanian shores of the Dead Sea, told an audience including Israeli president Shimon Peres and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas that an independent Palestinian economy is essential to achieving a sustainable peace. Speaking under the conference banner "Breaking the Impasse", Kerry announced a plan that he promised would be "bigger, bolder and more ambitious" than anything since the Oslo accords, more than 20 years ago. Tony Blair is to lead a group of private sector leaders in devising a plan to release the Palestinian economy from its dependence on international donors. The initial findings of Blair's taskforce, Kerry boasted, were "stunning", predicting a 50% increase in Palestinian GDP over three years, a cut of two-thirds in unemployment rates and almost double the Palestinian median wage. Currently, 40% of the Palestinian economy is supplied by donor aid. Kerry assured Abbas that the economic plan was not a substitute for a political solution, which remains the US's "top priority". Peres, who had taken the stage just minutes before, also issued a personal plea to his Palestinian counterpart to return to the negotiations. "Let me say to my dear friend President Abbas," Peres said, "Should we really dance around the table? Lets sit together. You'll be surprised how much can be achieved in open, direct and organised meetings."
By: Jillian Kestler-D'Amours
Date: 27/05/2013
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Isolation Devastates East Jerusalem Economy
Thick locks hug the front gates of shuttered shops, now covered in graffiti and dust from lack of use. Only a handful of customers pass along the dimly lit road, sometimes stopping to check the ripeness of fruits and vegetables, or ordering meat in near-empty butcher shops. “All the shops are closed. I’m the only one open. This used to be the best place,” said 64-year-old Mustafa Sunocret, selling vegetables out of a small storefront in the marketplace near his family’s home in the Muslim quarter of Jerusalem’s Old City. Amidst the brightly coloured scarves, clothes and carpets, ceramic pottery and religious souvenirs filling the shops of Jerusalem’s historic Old City, Palestinian merchants are struggling to keep their businesses alive. Faced with worsening health problems, Sunocret told IPS that he cannot work outside of the Old City, even as the cost of maintaining his shop, with high electricity, water and municipal tax bills to pay, weighs on him. “I only have this shop,” he said. “There is no other work. I’m tired.” Abed Ajloni, the owner of an antiques shop in the Old City, owes the Jerusalem municipality 250,000 Israeli shekels (68,300 U.S. dollars) in taxes. He told IPS that almost every day, the city’s tax collectors come into the Old City, accompanied by Israeli police and soldiers, to pressure people there to pay. “It feels like they’re coming again to occupy the city, with the soldiers and police,” Ajloni, who has owned the same shop for 35 years, told IPS. “But where can I go? What can I do? All my life I was in this place.” He added, “Does Jerusalem belong to us, or to someone else? Who’s responsible for Jerusalem? Who?” Illegal annexation Israel occupied East Jerusalem, including the Old City, in 1967. In July 1980, it passed a law stating that “Jerusalem, complete and united, is the capital of Israel”. But Israel’s annexation of East Jerusalem and subsequent application of Israeli laws over the entire city remain unrecognised by the international community. Under international law, East Jerusalem is considered occupied territory – along with the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Syrian Golan Heights – and Palestinian residents of the city are protected under the Fourth Geneva Convention. Jerusalem has historically been the economic, political and cultural centre of life for the entire Palestinian population. But after decades languishing under destructive Israeli policies meant to isolate the city from the rest of the Occupied Territories and a lack of municipal services and investment, East Jerusalem has slipped into a state of poverty and neglect. “After some 45 years of occupation, Arab Jerusalemites suffer from political and cultural schizophrenia, simultaneously connected with and isolated from their two hinterlands: Ramallah and the West Bank to their east, West Jerusalem and Israel to the west,” the International Crisis Group recently wrote. Israeli restrictions on planning and building, home demolitions, lack of investment in education and jobs, construction of an eight-foot-high separation barrier between and around Palestinian neighbourhoods and the creation of a permit system to enter Jerusalem have all contributed to the city’s isolation. Formal Palestinian political groups have also been banned from the city, and between 2001-2009, Israel closed an estimated 26 organisations, including the former Palestinian Liberation Organisation headquarters in Jerusalem, the Orient House and the Jerusalem Chamber of Commerce. Extreme poverty Israel’s policies have also led to higher prices for basic goods and services and forced many Palestinian business owners to close shop and move to Ramallah or other Palestinian neighbourhoods on the other side of the wall. Many Palestinian Jerusalemites also prefer to do their shopping in the West Bank, or in West Jerusalem, where prices are lower. While Palestinians constitute 39 percent of the city’s population today, almost 80 percent of East Jerusalem residents, including 85 percent of children, live below the poverty line. “How could you develop [an] economy if you don’t control your resources? How could you develop [an] economy if you don’t have any control of your borders?” said Zakaria Odeh, director of the Civic Coalition for Palestinian Rights in Jerusalem, of “this kind of fragmentation, checkpoints, closure”. “Without freedom of movement of goods and human beings, how could you develop an economy?” he asked. “You can’t talk about independent economy in Jerusalem or the West Bank or in all of Palestine without a political solution. We don’t have a Palestinian economy; we have economic activities. That’s all we have,” Odeh told IPS. Israel’s separation barrier alone, according to a new report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTD), has caused a direct loss of over one billion dollars to Palestinians in Jerusalem, and continues to incur 200 million dollars per year in lost opportunities. Israel’s severing and control over the Jerusalem-Jericho road – the historical trade route that connected Jerusalem to the rest of the West Bank and Middle East – has also contributed to the city’s economic downturn. Separation of Jerusalem from West Bank Before the First Intifada (Arabic for “uprising”) began in the late 1980s, East Jerusalem contributed approximately 14 to 15 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the Occupied Palestinian territories (OPT). By 2000, that number had dropped to less than eight percent; in 2010, the East Jerusalem economy, compared to the rest of the OPT, was estimated at only seven percent. “Economic separation resulted in the contraction in the relative size of the East Jerusalem economy, its detachment from the remaining OPT and the gradual redirection of East Jerusalem employment towards the Israeli labour market,” the U.N. report found. Decades ago, Israel adopted a policy to maintain a so-called “demographic balance” in Jerusalem and attempt to limit Palestinian residents of the city to 26.5 percent or less of the total population. To maintain this composition, Israel built numerous Jewish-Israeli settlements inside and in a ring around Jerusalem and changed the municipal boundaries to encompass Jewish neighbourhoods while excluding Palestinian ones. It is now estimated that 90,000 Palestinians holding Jerusalem residency rights live on the other side of the separation barrier and must cross through Israeli checkpoints in order to reach Jerusalem for school, medical treatment, work, and other services. “Israel is using all kinds of tools to push the Palestinians to leave; sometimes they are visible, and sometimes invisible tools,” explained Ziad al-Hammouri, director of the Jerusalem Centre for Social and Economic Rights (JCSER). Al-Hammouri told IPS that at least 25 percent of the 1,000 Palestinian shops in the Old City were closed in recent years as a result of high municipal taxes and a lack of customers. “Taxation is an invisible tool…as dangerous as revoking ID cards and demolishing houses,” he said. “Israel will use this as pressure and as a tool in the future to confiscate these shops and properties.”
By the Same Author
Date: 29/12/2010
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It's over for Benjamin Netanyahu
Benjamin Netanyahu has in effect concluded his term as prime minister. It's all downhill until the next elections, without any achievements and without an agenda, passing the time buying political calm and deflecting diplomatic pressure. Instead of initiating and leading, Netanyahu will engage in fruitless holding actions until he falls from power. The bewilderment and paralysis were apparent in Netanyahu's interview Monday with Channel 10 on the patio of his official residence in Jerusalem. He violated the first rule of political life: When you don't have anything to say, it's better to keep quiet. The prime minister came to the interview without any new message, without a way forward, and he wasted his airtime trying to dispel the contention that he's the dishrag of Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and his own wife, Sara. When the prime minister gives an interview just like that in the middle of the week, it's a clear sign he's fairing poorly and no one is willing to stand up for him on the air. The announcement of the resignation of his communications adviser, Nir Hefetz, two hours after the embarrassing interview, only reinforced the impression that Netanyahu is isolated and there is no one to speak for him publicly. Over the past two weeks, in the run-up to the vote on the last budget of his current government, Netanyahu has been kicked around by his coalition partners. As is his habit, he tried to satisfy them all. He gave Yisrael Beiteinu's Lieberman the army conversion law. Shas' Eli Yishai got stipends for yeshiva students and Labor's Ehud Barak got more money for the defense budget. Each defeat reinforced the impression that Netanyahu was being led by the nose. Twice he was forced to announce that diplomatic statements by Lieberman and Defense Minister Barak "do not represent the government's position," after Barak divided Jerusalem and Lieberman said any final peace agreement would lead immediately to a breakup of the coalition. Netanyahu has only himself to blame for his sorry state. The breaking point where his collapse began came last summer when he rejected Kadima leader Tzipi Livni's offer to join the government instead of Lieberman. Netanyahu preferred Livni as the head of a groggy opposition over the threat of Lieberman, who might be able to steal the right-wing electorate from the prime minister's Likud party. If he had marshaled the courage to reconfigure his coalition and engage in an intensive peace process with the Palestinians, international pressure on Israel would have ebbed and the prime minister would have been portrayed as a leader and trailblazer. But Netanyahu took refuge behind his "natural partners," Lieberman and Yishai, and behind his Republican friends in the U.S. Congress, rejecting President Barack Obama's initiative for expedited negotiations on the future border between Israel and the Palestinian state. Netanyahu defeated Obama but suffered a double loss himself. He was not only left without an agenda, he also projected weakness and encouraged Lieberman to abuse him publicly. Netanyahu attributed his failure during his first term as prime minister to his reticence to form a national unity government. It's a shame he hasn't learned the lesson and has repeated the same mistake in his current term. The ridiculous contention that the political alliance with Barak is a kind of national unity government has not convinced a soul. The shattered Labor Party is not a counterweight to the coalition parties on the right. Netanyahu pretended for a moment to represent the political center when he embraced the concept of two states for two peoples and froze construction in the West Bank settlements. But at the moment of truth, he remained in his natural home with the extreme right. In a moment of candor in his interview on Monday, Netanyahu complained that he was being judged over the diplomatic stalemate and that his economic achievements were being ignored. "The Palestinians," he said, "are not ready to move forward to peace, so the whole country is 'stuck.'" If that's so, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has succeeded in his plot to do nothing until international pressure undermines Netanyahu. What can be done? Israeli prime ministers are evaluated based on their success in settling the conflict with the Arabs rather than their devotion to the status quo. From now on, the agenda is changing. Instead of cultivating false hopes for a peace agreement, the international effort should be geared toward heading off a war. Netanyahu is cautious in using military force, but election years have always been prone to military escalation. Obama will have to redouble his supervision of the prime minister to head off an Operation Cast Lead II or Israeli action in Iran.
Date: 25/02/2010
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Netanyahu Faces Double Intifada From Palestinians and Settlers
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is busy day and night, preparing Israel for a fateful confrontation with Iran. But his real problem may occur elsewhere. The territories are heating up, with the Palestinians escalating their protests against the settlements and the separation fence. The settlers, meanwhile, can smell Netanyahu's weakness and are undermining the authority of the state. Two events in recent days indicate the threat of an outburst: the protest in Bil'in, which Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad participated in, where some of the 1,000 demonstrators tore apart a short portion of the fence; and the invasion of dozens of right-wing activists into the ancient synagogue of Na'aran, saying "we will return to Jericho and Nablus." In both incidents, the violence was limited and no one was injured. But the struggle over the West Bank has transitioned to a new stage. Fayyad, the former darling of official Israel, is proving to be Netanyahu's most problematic rival. The one-time economist and technocrat has gradually become a politician - enjoying exposure, kissing children, stepping up to the head of the "White Intifada," as dubbed by researchers Shaul Mishal and Doron Matza in their article in Haaretz this week. On Monday, the Palestinian government adopted a plan of action for "non-violent opposition" to the settlements and the fence. Fayyad's White Intifada is different from its predecessors. It has a clear political goal: Declaring a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders by the summer of 2011. By then, Fayyad will have completed the building of national institutions and will work on gaining international recognition through a diplomatic pincer movement on Netanyahu. He is receiving enthusiastic approval from the U.S. administration as a successful manager. Some 2,600 Palestinian policemen have already graduated from the training course run by U.S. General Keith Dayton in Jordan and are back in the territories, expecting to serve an independent state, not as subordinate agents of an Israeli occupation. The foreign ministers of France and Spain, in a joint article published yesterday in Le Monde, called to expedite the establishment of a Palestinian state and complete its recognition by October 2011. The protests against the fence and the settlements, as seen through the lens of the international media, have a strong impact and present Israel with a dilemma. Its initial response was "to strike at the enemy in his home base": a wave of arrests of those who organized protests at Bil'in and Na'alin, and IDF raids in Ramallah to arrest members of the International Solidarity Movement. Israeli security officials explained to their foreign counterparts how these parties "present Israel with an existential threat." But these actions failed. The Palestinians were not deterred and continued to demonstrate, knowing Israel would not dare harm Fayyad and his people. Netanyahu's next step will be a major public relations campaign against "incitement in the Palestinian Authority." But Fayyad is prepared for this: He holds a report from the U.S. administration giving him high marks on ridding Palestinian school books of anti-Israeli propaganda. The prime minister's position is also worsening vis-a-vis the settlers, as the temporary settlement freeze approaches its planned end in September. Will he go back to building at full speed, as promised, and risk creating a rift with U.S. President Barack Obama? Or will he continue with the freeze and risk a settler intifada? Washington is concerned Israel could lose its control over the extremists in the settlements, and of a possible internal rift in the Israel Defense Forces, whose religious soldiers and officers may refuse to obey orders to evacuate or raze settlements. Governments of the "world" are losing their limited patience with Netanyahu and his government, as the criticism in Europe for the "murder" of senior Hamas figure Mahmoud al-Mabhouh - even from the likes of a friend of Israel like Nicolas Sarkozy - has shown. The diplomatic process remains stuck, and the "economic peace" is exhausted. The Red Cross reported last week that the lives of Palestinians have not improved, and that "it is nearly impossible to have a normal life in the West Bank." Netanyahu is in dire straits. His box of tricks is running out. The Palestinians and settlers are exploiting his weakness. The world does not believe him and questions his control on the ground. Unless he surprises everyone with a daring initiative that will restore control to his agenda, the prime minister will be facing a double intifada from Fayyad and the settler hilltop youth.
Date: 14/01/2010
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Sharon's Real Legacy - Keeping the Arabs Out of Sight
Let's assume the optimistic forecast by special U.S. envoy George Mitchell comes true and in two years the establishment of an independent Palestine is declared at a ceremony. The event will be broadcast on prime time, but most Israelis will opt to view "Big Brother 6," "Survivor 7" or whatever the next television hit is. Viewers will behave this way not because they oppose a Palestinian state but because they are indifferent. Palestine-shmalestine simply does not interest them. Most Israelis today are cut off from the conflict with the Palestinians and do not interact with them. From their point of view, the Palestinians are blurry figures during TV newscasts: Mahmoud Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh speak, women covered from head to toe mourn in a tent, men run with a stretcher after an ambulance, men concealing their faces fire Qassam rockets. Israelis have no interest in knowing anything further. Nablus and Ramallah are about 40 minutes by car from Tel Aviv, but in the eyes of Tel Avivians they are on a different planet. New York, London and Thailand are much closer. The settlers beyond the separation fence are the only Israelis who see Palestinians, mostly through car windows on the roads they share. The settlers, like the Palestinians, are disconnected from the residents of the Tel Aviv region, Haifa or Be'er Sheva, who hardly ever cross the fence. They have no business in Elon Moreh, Yitzhar or Psagot. The big settlements like Ma'aleh Adumim and Ariel can be reached almost without having to see Palestinians. The policy of isolation is the real legacy of Ariel Sharon, who built the fence in the West Bank, left the Gaza Strip and pushed the Palestinians out of the Israeli labor force. Sharon did not believe in peace and was not interested in links with the "Arabs." All he wanted was to protect the Jews from attacks by their "bloodthirsty" neighbors. Keeping them out of sight lets Israelis live as if there were no conflict, with only settlers on the periphery and soldiers on the firing line. The "demographic problem" also is not frightening when it is locked up behind walls and fences. In the past Israel's economy relied on Palestinian workers, but only older Israelis remember them at restaurants, construction sites and gas stations. Here and there one can still find friendships; waiters at Restaurant 206 in Kiryat Shaul sometimes gather their tips for a Palestinian friend who once waited tables and is now besieged in the Gaza Strip. Stories like this are almost part of folklore. The Israeli economy is geared toward Wall Street, not Shuhada Street. The stock market is hardly affected by routine security issues, and real estate prices are flying high as if this were Hong Kong, not a country under threat on a constant war alert. The Israel Defense Forces, who sent generations of Israelis to the territories, has minimized the exposure of its soldiers to the Palestinians. Fewer and fewer people do reserve duty, and even fewer in the West Bank. The regular army has minimized the activities of its units in the territories and transferred much of the policing duties in the West Bank to the Kfir Brigade. Air force crews, who carry the burden of the fighting in the Gaza Strip, see the Palestinians as silent spots on their screens fed from drone footage. Entertainment intensifies the gap in the way Israelis have come to regard their country, and the way it is seen in the world. The local media describes Israel as a Western high-tech superpower, an annex of Manhattan and Hollywood. The foreign media covers the conflict: terrorist attacks and assassinations, settlements and peace talks. When the Israelis who have never visited a settlement see themselves on CNN they are offended: We are not like that. This is anti-Semitic propaganda. Foreigners visiting Israel are amazed to discover the degree to which reality here is disconnected from what they heard at home. They expect a violent apartheid state, and are surprised that the toilets and buses are not separate for Jews and Arabs. They imagine a conservative, buttoned-up society and are shocked by Tel Aviv's nightlife. They walk in the street and realize that in London or Paris they see a lot more Arabs than in most Israeli cities. Because of the entertainment and indifference, the government doesn't face public pressure to pull out of the territories and establish a Palestinian state, and the opposition to the American peace initiative is being led by the extremists on the right. Most Israelis simply don't care; they gave up on the territories a long time ago. If Mitchell succeeds in his mission, they will hear about it and change the channel.
Date: 19/11/2009
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Why Netanyahu Really does Want to Advance Peace
I could hear the prime minister's familiar voice on the telephone. "I want to advance a peace agreement with the Palestinians. I am capable of achieving an agreement. I have the political will inside me," Benjamin Netanyahu told me. He repeated this message during his speeches at the conference of Jewish communities in Washington and at the Saban Forum in Jerusalem: great concessions, generosity of spirit, territorial compromise, let's start negotiations and surprise the world, he said. I believe him. Political leaders are tested on a public message that they are willing to defend in front of cameras and microphones. Experience shows that there is a correlation between what is said on stage and discrete whispers behind closed doors. Conclusion: Netanyahu's peace talk is meant to prepare the political pundits and Israeli public opinion for a political move, which he presented to U.S. President Barack Obama during their meeting last week. Netanyahu is motivated by a number of things: The Strategy: It appears that Netanyahu is preparing for war against Iran and Hezbollah in the coming spring, when the snows melt and the clouds clear. Evidence of this is the additional defense budget and the home front's preparations for a confrontation. And even if in the end Netanyahu doesn't strike, he must be ready. It is better for Israel to fight on fewer fronts and neutralize enemies through diplomacy. Popularity: According to the Haaretz-Dialog survey published Friday, most Israelis want a settlement with the Palestinians and are willing to talk to Hamas, but prefer that the negotiations be handled by a right-wing government. Netanyahu is popular, and currently no politician is threatening to take the public's support away from him. If he moves forward in a political process, he will be meeting the public's expectations, as he had done in his declaration for "two states for two peoples" and in canceling the drought tax. Politics: Netanyahu fears a breakdown of the Labor Party, which may take it out of the coalition and leave him with only his "natural partners," who oppose a settlement, and without Defense Minister Ehud Barak, whom the prime minister wants next to him in an expected confrontation with Iran. Netanyahu needs to give Labor enough slack so it can stay in his coalition, as he did when he responded to Barak and came out against Justice Minister Yaakov Neeman's plan to split the role of the attorney general. The World: Israel's international isolation is becoming more difficult. Credible negotiations with the Palestinians, especially if they are accompanied by the "generosity" that Netanyahu promises, will remove the Goldstone report from over Israel's head and with it the threat of being boycotted and condemned. They will also contribute to the rehabilitation of relations with Europe, Turkey and Jordan. It is true that Netanyahu can trick them all and buy time with empty negotiations until he makes up his mind whether to attack Iran, or until Obama is deep in the race for a second term and leaves him be. Netanyahu knows that he is not believed and says: I don't want a peace process for the sake of the process, but to bring an end to the problem. He can trick the journalists who, in the worst-case scenario, will write things against him. But it is hard to believe that he will try to cheat the president of the United States and make false promises. The deal that Obama is offering is clear: a diplomatic struggle against Iran and defense backing for Israel - in some areas even more than what was on the table during the Bush administration - in return for a pullout from the territories and a Palestinian state. Netanyahu understood this and still insisted on meeting the president, even at the cost of public humiliation, to tell him that he wants to push forward on a settlement with the Palestinians. He spoke with him about "concrete steps" and made his promises public. Why would he do this if his intentions were not true? The prime minister is lonely. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas avoids him. His senior ministers are not thrilled by the prospect: Barak leans toward Syria and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman looks down on negotiations with the Palestinians. It is not clear if Netanyahu has a negotiator who can cobble together a deal, as Moshe Dayan was for Menachem Begin and Shimon Peres for Yitzhak Rabin. Every political leader needs a court diplomat, a Henry Kissinger of sorts. Barak and Ehud Olmert carried out the negotiations on their own and crashed. But these problems can be resolved. The minute Netanyahu is convincing that he is serious and has a serious peace plan and not mere slogans, the political world will be shaken up, and those supporting a settlement with the Palestinians will back him. This is his challenge. He convinced me; let's see him convince Abbas.
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