MIFTAH
Saturday, 20 April. 2024
 
Your Key to Palestine
The Palestinian Initiatives for The Promotoion of Global Dialogue and Democracy
 
 
 

Commentators have completed their detailed analysis on US President George Bush’s arrival to the Holy Land; hotel employees have cleared up the president’s suite and the meeting rooms he graced while event coordinators and sound technicians have dismantled all the equipment used in projecting his promises of peace in conference halls. The public is gradually reverting back to their daily routines after the initial excitement induced by the visit of the most powerful man in the world.

However, a week after this “historic” trip, all the time and effort that went into arranging the president’s busy schedule, his security and ensuring his daily routines were kept on his first trip to the area as president, may have been proven pointless following recent movements within the Israeli political sphere.

The president had hoped that his presence would incite pressure and urgency into proceedings between Israelis and Palestinians. G. W. Bush, almost overemphasizing his close personal relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in the hope of offering credibility to the unpopular prime minister, appealed to the Knesset to stand by the Kadima leader and allow him to direct them to a peace agreement before the end of 2008.

President Bush must have been overly confident and, in the process, overestimated the effect his attendance would have on the Israeli MK’s. Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs, Avigdor Lieberman, evidently did not feel compelled to abide by the president’s words and resigned from the coalition, taking with him the 11 Knesset seats allocated to his right-wing Yishrael Beiteinu party.

Lieberman had always threatened to leave the governing coalition if Olmert began to deliberate “core” issues with the Palestinians, so his departure could be seen by some as the result of serious advancements being made behind the scenes. Although this conclusion is tempting, Lieberman probably acted to provide a reality check to the President’s trip and remind doubters where the true authority lies for change. In addition, the Winograd report is due on January 30. This investigation is predicted to be highly critical of Olmert’s actions during the Second Lebanese War in 2006. Therefore, the former deputy premier, who aligned with Kadima to strengthen them once the war had been initiated, perhaps wants to be acknowledged with adding to the prime minister’s anguish and assuming the position of a catalyst for the string of events which could usher in Olmert’s downfall.

Regarding the reasons for his resignation, Lieberman declared in his meeting on the morning of January 16 that “negotiations on the basis of land for peace are a fatal mistake”. Furthermore, the Chairman of Yishrael Beiteinu vehemently voiced his cynicism over the peace meetings. “If we pull back to the 1967 borders…what will happen the following day? Will the conflict stop, will the terror stop? Nothing will change”.

Lieberman’s decision to stand down has attracted many comments from his peers. More left-wing Meretz MK, Ran Cohen, praised Lieberman’s choice and viewed it as an opportunity to be seized stating, “thank God we ridded ourselves of the biggest racist on the political spectrum”. Lieberman believed that Israeli Arabs who dealt with Hamas should be executed, advocated the establishment of homogeneous states with respect to land and population and asserted that if a Palestinian state were founded, the Israeli Arabs would request Palestinian citizenship while receiving social security payments from Israel. The former Minister of Strategic Affairs publicly announced that Israeli Arabs, such as Ahmed Tibi and Mohammed Barakeh, were more dangerous than Hassan Nasrallah and Khaled Mesha’al as they operated within Israel.

After all the commotion surrounding the ramifications of Lieberman’s resignation, those who were ostensibly meant to feel the heat of his departure have addressed the press with brave faces, diminishing the importance of Lieberman’s role within the coalition and vowing to power through this set back.

The coalition, at present, has nothing to fear from the withdrawal of Yishrael Beiteinu. Without them, Olmert still commands a majority of 67 seats consisting of his party Kadima [29], Labor [19], Shas [12] and the Gil Pensioners party [7] still propping up the coalition. There have been no known motions made by Gil or Labor which suggest that they plan to abandon the coalition. However, the cause for concern is the intentions of Shas and their 12 seats.

Shas’ Chairman and Minister of Employment, Trade and Industry, Eli Yishai, called Lieberman while in China, confirming that Shas would leave the coalition if Olmert made concessions on Jerusalem. This sentiment is also shared by the highly influential spiritual leader of Shas, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef.

If Shas were to leave the coalition as a result of the peace process or the findings of Winograd, Olmert would only control 55 seats within the Knesset and would be faced with two possible options. First, Olmert could call early elections in the hope that his 8% approval rating suddenly rises on account of his breakthroughs with the Palestinians, or second, he could attempt to appeal to other parties to make up a majority.

There are three avenues open to Olmert. He could approach either United Torah Judaism [UTJ], Meretz or include two or even all three of the Israeli Arab parties. UTJ has 6 seats, Meretz has 5, Hadash and the National Democratic Assembly [Balad] each hold three seats while Ra’am Ta’al seats 4 representatives in the Knesset.

UTJ is not the most obvious partner for peace. Their party manifesto stresses that the peace process is not their primary concern; UTJ is opposed to a Palestinian state; they believe that Jerusalem should be predominantly reserved for Jewish worship and support the notion that Jews should be able to live wherever they wish. Although they hold 6 seats, UTJ’s political platform is not exactly conducive or accommodating to the prerequisites required for a peace agreement with the Palestinians.

Meretz is more of a match for Olmert. The left wing Israeli party supports dismantling settlements and advocates a full withdraw from the Occupied Territories. Meretz also doesn’t reject the idea of a divided Jerusalem. However, Meretz has only five seats in the Knesset so Olmert would still need another party to step up and save his coalition from collapse. In addition, Meretz believes in the right to refuse military service and also aims to uphold the rights of minorities in Israel, a stance that could cause some friction with a coalition that adamantly states that Israel be a Jewish state.

As for the Israeli Arab parties, the communist Hadash party follow a policy of full evacuation and withdrawal from the Occupied Territories, establishing an independent Palestinian state and right of return/compensation for Palestinian refugees.

Balad supports a two-state solution on pre-1967 borders and an Israeli state that is democratic, not exclusively Jewish. However, Balad has a litigious recent history in Israeli politics. Along with Ra’am Ta’al, the Election Committee banned Balad in 2003. The motion was overturned by the Supreme Court due to a lack of sufficient evidence but centered on former Balad member, Azmi Bishara, who was alleged to have assisted and supported Lebanon in its struggle against Israel in 2006. After the problems surrounding his trip to Syria, Bishara also vehemently opposed being told which Arab countries he was permitted to visit. A government that aligns with Balad could therefore cause ill feelings within some in the current coalition who believe that Israeli Arabs are somewhat of an unpredictable group.

If Shas leaves, would Meretz or the Israeli Arab parties even accept an invitation to join Olmert’s falling coalition and thus fill the void? It is very much dependent on their intentions. If they perceive that Olmert is truly committed to peace then they may offer their support.

However, the more pressing question is whether Olmert would choose to ask these groups to prop up his coalition. One may think that he simply has no other choice but to take his slim chances in fresh elections, but pursuing the latter could prove more beneficial. By assembling a coalition with such contrasting ideologies, Olmert may just be prolonging his demise.

If these stances on Israel becoming an all encompassing democratic state, Jerusalem, refugees and settlements can be appeased under the guise of a gradual grand plan for peace, and if the rest of the coalition complies, then Olmert’s coalition may be sustained. If these political viewpoints have to be addressed in some condition for entry, Olmert will find himself in a precarious position he is not willing or prepared to be in. The two major parties in the coalition, Kadima and Labor, believe in an exclusively Jewish state, maintaining most settlement blocs and are still reluctant on the idea of a divided Jerusalem. These points lack definition and are even contended in the international community. Therefore, how dedicated is Olmert to peace? Will he risk the support of his own party and bargain over his principles in order to stay prime minister? The answer is no, so unless any of the prospective coalition members make compromises on their demands, Shas’ resignation could more than likely signify the beginning of the end for Olmert.

In any event, the resignation of Lieberman and the subsequent debate has highlighted one, hugely important misconception. The power and pressure required to implement or enforce change does not come from anywhere but Israel. As has been proven, the presence of US President Bush has no apparent bearing on the future of Israeli actions. They will act in accordance with their own boundaries – with what they deem necessary and right for the future direction of their state.

With respect to the other members of the Quartet, UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and Russia both condemned the assault on Gaza last week and called for a cessation of aggression and a stop to the collective punishment of innocent Palestinians in Gaza. Their influence stops with these statements. Furthermore there is Blair, the ubiquitous Middle East envoy who has been proposing methods to improve the West Bank’s deteriorating economic health. The former British Prime Minister can consult, recommend and attempt to convince but cannot compel, which is possibly why he has become the political adviser to the world’s third richest bank, JP Morgan, and is no doubt contemplating the role of EU President when the EU Reform Act creates the position later this year.

The Quartet’s words carry little weight with Israel, the latter believing that their security is paramount and the means they employ to guarantee their existence are thus unquestionable and obligatory, releasing them from obligation and superseding any foreign mandate.

 
 
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