This paper examines the humanitarian risks in the West Bank and Gaza Strip in the coming months. It warns of an extremely bleak humanitarian situation for the Palestinian people.

The analysis has been organised according to three scenarios. Scenario 1 reflects the current situation. A more critical forecast is related to the withdrawal of funding to the Palestinian Authority (PA). This has prompted humanitarian agencies to initiate planning based on two further scenarios (2 and 3).

Scenario 1 The current situation follows patterns in recent months where restrictions on Palestinian movement and access to services continue and Israeli security measures have intensified. At the end of 2005, the UN and other humanitarian agencies launched a Consolidated Appeal for $215m to meet emergency needs arising from this situation. For the first three months of this year, this Appeal has largely been under-funded – funds received to date stand at 8%.1 Consequently agencies have not been able to implement many planned programmes.

Scenario 2 Israeli-enforced movement restrictions and security measures continue and the Palestinian Authority's (PA) budget and services are only partially funded.

Scenario 3 Continued movement restrictions and security measures and the PA budget and services are not funded at all.

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