As late as last week, the campaigners for captive soldier Gilad Shalit's release and his family still seemed optimistic. The campaign's leaders believed that the prime minister, the cabinet and most of the public supported the exchange deal. When asked what could still go wrong, they hinted that the cabinet was a possible bottleneck.

But it seems that even this was overoptimistic: As of yesterday, the decision got stuck at an even earlier junction - that of the forum of seven, the most senior cabinet members. The forum met a number of times over the last few days.

Based on earlier statements by the ministers, we may suppose that three would support the deal (Ehud Barak, Dan Meridor and Eli Yishai), and three would oppose (Moshe Ya'alon, Benny Begin and Avigdor Lieberman). It's also safe to assume that the military chiefs are as divided as the politicians: Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi has supported the deal, while Mossad director Meir Dagan has opposed. The opinion of Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin is also likely to carry considerable weight. Diskin opposed the deal when negotiations reached their previous peak in March.

So the ball is still in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's court. Before he took office, Netanyahu made no secret of his yearning for Ehud Olmert to bring the deal to a close; Shalit was captured on Olmert's watch. As prime minister, Netanyahu has displayed a consistent commitment to the negotiations and to concluding the exchange.

Now foreign reports suggest that Netanyahu is hesitating. This may be because of the nature of the agreement, which includes the release of scores of convicted murderers from Hamas, including senior terror activists. Another consideration is political. It's true that polls show that the public supports the deal and that most ministers would probably vote with the prime minister.

But the hard core of right-wing voters furiously opposes the release of murderers. This group was already incensed with Netanyahu over the construction freeze in the settlements. A double whammy of the freeze and the prisoner exchange may be a bit too much for the prime minister.

The tight secrecy around the deliberations on the exchange makes it hard to analyze the situation. A number of crucial variables are hidden from the public eye: Does the offer on the prime minister's table belong to the German mediator, or to Hamas? Does it include the release, with or without deportation, of the most senior Hamas prisoners? This is the toughest obstacle in the negotiations over the last three and a half years.

And what is the timetable? International media have reported that the mediator presented the sides with a Christmas deadline (others said a New Year's deadline), threatening to resign unless a deal was made.

If these reports are true, Israel this week will present its final answer to the mediator, who will need to complete another dash between Gaza and Tel Aviv. If the deal isn't completed this week, the negotiations may stall for a few more months. This is why Noam and Aviva Shalit were at Netanyahu's office yesterday, warning the prime minister that their son was on his way to becoming a second Ron Arad, the missing pilot. The choice was between returning Gilad and abandoning him, they wrote to Netanyahu.

It should be noted that the process on both sides of the talks is similar. Every decision-maker on both sides is trying his best to show his opponent that he has made every conceivable compromise and one more inch would be a mission impossible. Now these decision-makers must concentrate on preparing public opinion for the possibility of failure, and for piling as much blame as possible on the enemy.

On the Palestinian side, it seems Hamas won't compromise on any of the core issues, such as the most senior prisoners and the number of prisoners to be deported.

To Hamas, completing the deal without the symbolic top militants and with more than 100 prisoners deported would be a failure. The organization has pledged time and again to avoid just that.

Palestinians sources say the tougher wing in the organization is led by the political bureau in Damascus, along with the Gaza military leaders. The Gaza politicians, by contrast, appear to be more flexible, but seem to be as isolated in this triangle of power as they usually are.

Amid this ruckus, the dignity of the Shalit family stands out all the more. It took Noam Shalit two whole years to begin criticizing Olmert.It then withheld all criticism between Olmert's speech on his "red lines" and Netanyahu's entry into office. At this point, Noam Shalit won't criticize Netanyahu - and is holding back campaigners demanding stronger action.