Background

The Arab League gave approval to the Palestinian Authority to conduct proximity talks with Israel provided that Israel stops settlement activities. Israel, however, and upon the visit of the US Vice President declared its intention to build settlement clusters in East Jerusalem

Some calls sprang up lately to declare the establishment of a Palestinian state from one side by the Palestinian Authority, to seek international recognition from the United Nations and to ask the Security Council to draw the final borders of the Palestinian State.

The last Arab summit conference was held in Libya and some resolutions were made to support the Palestinian Authority and to raise concern and particular support for the issue of Jerusalem

On another side of the scene, the Ministry of Local Government declared that all municipalities and local councils are caretaker councils until mid July when Municipality and local council elections will be held

The Results

Following are the results of the Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 40 conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 8-10 April 2010. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 40 undertakes the current political developments such as issues related to the national reconciliation, the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority in view of the continuing settlement activities in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, the coming municipality and local council elections, the performance of the governments of Salam Fayyad and Ismail Haniyeh in addition to political affiliations and other issues.

The sample included 1861 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 861 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 2.7% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.

The General Results:

• 71.3% of respondents supported the call of Prime Minister Salam Fayyad to the Palestinian Authority to declare the establishment of a Palestinian State in August 2011.
• 21.3% of respondents believed that the USA will succeed in exerting pressure on Israel to freeze settlement activities in East Jerusalem for four months.
• 48.7% of respondents supported conducting direct negotiations between the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli Government; 47.3% rejected.
• 34% of respondents supported conducting indirect negotiations between the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli Government; 60.8% rejected.
• 78.6% of respondents supported the decision of the Palestinian Authority not to negotiate with the Israeli Government while the latter continues to build settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
• 83% of respondents rejected conducting negotiations between the Palestinian Authority and Israel in case Israel continues to build settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem; 14.3% supported.
• 9.3% of respondents believed that the decisions of the Arab Summit relating to Jerusalem were satisfactory; 83% believed that they were not.
• 11.6% of respondents believed that the Arab countries will carry out the decisions of the Arab Summit relating to the Palestinian question and Jerusalem while 79.5% believed that they will not.
• 56.1% of respondents supported the declaration made by a group of Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip to stop firing rockets against Israel from Gaza; 37.7% rejected.
• 55.6% of respondents believed that the stand of Hamas towards firing rockets against Israel has become congruent with that of the Palestinian Authority.
• 51.3% of respondents believed that it is possible to reach a national reconciliation agreement between Fateh and Hamas in the near future; 42.5% believed the contrary.
• 15.7% of respondents believed that Hamas is the side which benefits most from signing the Palestinian reconciliation agreement while 22.2% believed that Fateh is the side that benefits most.
• 50.6% of respondents said that they are not optimistic of signing a reconciliation agreement in the near future.
• 44.7% of respondents believed that the sides of the Palestinian dialogue, particularly Fateh and Hamas, are not concerned with ending the Palestinian split.
• 48.9% of respondents believed that the reason behind not reaching a Palestinian reconciliation agreement is that some people seek to achieve personal interests; 42.6% believed that the reason has to do with seeking factional interests.
• 17.6% of respondents believed that the delay in the signing of the Palestinian reconciliation agreement is because of pressures exerted by some Arab sides; 27.6% believed that it is because of some regional pressures, and 44% believed that it is because of the factional interests of Fateh and Hamas.
• 41.7% of respondents believed that concluding the Shalit deal will speed up the national reconciliation process.
• 32.7% of respondents believed that signing the national reconciliation pact will lead to speeding the peace process; 12.3% believed that signing the reconciliation pact will freeze and entangle the peace process.
• In case a national reconciliation is achieved, respondents said that it will influence their conditions as follows:
  • Economic conditions 57.5%
  • Social conditions 60.0%
  • Political conditions 59.8%
  • Psychological conditions 70.5%
• 51.7% of respondents agreed on the establishment of a Palestinian State within the total area of the1967 boarders; 44.7% rejected.
• 28.3% of respondents agreed on the establishment of a Palestinian State within the 1967 boarders with some land exchange as a final solution for the Palestinian problem; 66.7% rejected.
• 66.7% of respondents saw that the final solution of the Palestinian problem should be implemented on the basis of a permanent solution; 30.3% saw that it should be implemented on stages.
• 20.8% of respondents supported making Jerusalem as the capital of two states: Palestine and Israel; 77.4% rejected.
• Respondents saw Jerusalem important for them in the following aspects:
  • Religious 97.0%
  • National/ethnic 89.8%
  • Political 88.9%
  • Historical 94.6%
• 81.5% of respondents believed that the volume of struggle between Palestinians and settlers will escalate in the future stage.
• Respondents saw that settlements, in case they remain, will cause the following problems:
  • Political 83.6%
  • Economic 78.0%
  • Religious 81.9%
  • Ethnic 78.8%
• 36.7% of respondents believed that Hamas movement is the one which endeavors to conduct presidential, legislative or local council elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip; 11.8% believed that it was Fateh which does so.
• 76.2% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 39.4% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 12.8% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.
• 76.1% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 40% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 13.3% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.
• If PLC elections are to be conducted, 46% of respondents expected the winning of Fateh movement; 15.8% expected the winning of Hamas.
• 61.3% of respondents supported the decision of the Ministry of Local Government that declared all current local councils and municipalities as caretaker ones; 28.6% rejected.
• 79.1% of respondents supported conducting municipality and local council elections in July 2010; 15.2% rejected.
• 80.5% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming municipality and local council elections. From among those who said they will participate, 31% said that they will give their votes to Fateh’s candidate, 10.9% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate and 11.5% said they will give their votes to the representative of the family or clan.
• 39.4% of respondents supported strikes organized by the unions of school teachers, university teachers, employees in the health sector and others; 55.3% rejected these strikes.
• 63.6% of respondents saw that the government of Salam Fayyad is the most capable of managing the Palestinian internal affairs; 20.1% saw that the government of Ismail Haniyeh is the most capable.
• 65.4% of respondents assessed the performance of the government of Salam Fayyad as “good”.
• 31.2% of respondents assessed the performance of the government of Ismail Haniyeh as “good”.
• 48.9% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.
• 63% of respondents said that they are pessimistic of the general Palestinian situation at this stage.
• 75.9% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and properties under the current circumstances.
• As for political affiliation respondents gave the following results:

  People’s Party	0.7%
  Democratic Front	0.6%
  Islamic Jihad	2.2%
  Fateh	35.5%
  Hamas	12.3%
  Fida	0.1%
  Popular Front	3.1%
  Palestinian National Initiative	0.9%
  I am an independent nationalist	5.0%
  I am an independent Islamist	3.5%
  None of the above	35.7%
  Others	0.4%

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