The Israeli Peace Now movement established the Settlements Watch project ­ which monitors the development of the settlements in the West Bank and Gaza ­ because we have always thought settlements threaten our existence as a Jewish, democratic state, weaken the security of Israel, drain our economic resources and serve to maintain Israeli rule over another people, thereby preventing Israel from reaching peace with the Palestinians.

As such, settlements today pose an existential threat to the future of Israel.

The West Bank and Gaza are not empty ­ besides the settlers, they’re now home to about 3.5 million Palestinians. And given demographic trends, those Palestinians, combined with Arab-Israelis who live inside the Green Line, will guarantee that Jews will soon be a minority and Arabs will be a majority in the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. When that day comes, Israel will cease to be a Jewish, democratic state.

We will no longer be a Jewish country because Israeli Jews will be outnumbered by our Arab neighbors. As a result, we will be forced to become a bi-national state lacking any prospects for stability. Or we will choose to forego all acceptable norms of democracy in order to maintain Jewish minority supremacy over an Arab majority. Both of these options should frighten all friends of Israel.

Settlements weaken our security because each settler, each settlement, and each bypass road requires protection from the Israeli military. In the West Bank, the Israeli line of defense is roughly 10 times longer than the Green Line because of the need to protect the settlements and their supporting infrastructure. A recent extensive study by a leading Israeli newspaper, Haaretz, found that Israel spent a little under a $500 million a year to maintain about 10,000 troops in the Occupied Territories prior to the intifada. Haaretz also found that our Defense Ministry is spending roughly double that amount today because of the ongoing violence.

Beyond stretching Israel’s defense capabilities, the settlement movement costs Israeli taxpayers at least $556 million in extra non-military spending each year, according to Haaretz.

Finally, Peace Now is concerned about settlements because they work to ensure that Israeli and Palestinian populations are woven together throughout the territories and make it impossible to separate the two societies into two viable, independent states.

It’s important to keep in mind that despite the fact that settlements are a significant obstacle to peace, there is no moral equivalency between settlements and terrorist attacks. Nor are settlements the only cause of tension between Israelis and Palestinians. At the same time, settlements have a lot to do with what Israel has failed to deliver through negotiations with the Palestinians that are based on the concept of exchanging land for peace.

The ultimate fate of official settlements is left as an issue for Israel and the Palestinians to resolve in a final peace agreement. But the “road map” details specific steps that Israel must take in the first phase of the process in order to prevent settlements from becoming an even worse dilemma.

These steps should be taken by Israel whether or not this particular plan is successful.

Israel is required to immediately dismantle settlement outposts erected since March 2001.

At this point, over 120 settlement outposts have been established since 1996, few have been truly evacuated, and the settlers continue to push to build new ones and strengthen older outposts every day.

Israel is also required to freeze all settlement activity, including natural growth of settlements. Successive Israeli governments have used the excuse of “natural growth” as a loophole through which more settlement housing and bypass roads have been built and more settlers brought to the occupied territories.

It’s true that some settlers move there for ideological or religious reasons. But they are a distinct minority. The vast majority of settlers ­ 77 percent, according to polling results ­ move to the occupied territories for “quality of life” reasons. Basically, what this means is that successive Israeli governments have offered extensive economic incentives that make it significantly cheaper for Israelis to live in the West Bank and Gaza than inside the Green Line.

Lastly, it’s important to point out that the positions that Peace Now takes on settlements are much more reflective of public opinion in Israel and the American Jewish community than those of the Sharon government. It is equally imperative to note that based on independent polling of settler opinion that was commissioned by Peace Now, it is clear that a majority of settlers will not necessarily pose an obstacle to a peace treaty should one be signed and require the evacuation of settlements in the future.

I would stress that Israel’s failure to meet its obligations regarding settlements is not an excuse for the Palestinian Authority’s failure to meet its obligations to combat terrorism and undertake numerous reform efforts. Both sides must take steps in parallel to make this particular peace plan succeed.

At the same time, I would suggest that ­ whether or not the road map is implemented ­ supporting the current Israeli government’s policy on settlements and the fence is not in Israel’s best interests.

Dror Etkes is director of Peace Now’s Settlements Watch program.