New Page 2
The
Background
The Palestinian people are
bereaved of their President and despite this great matter, the Palestinian
political institutions were able to make a quiet transition of powers by filling
in the gap bequeathed by the lasting departure of the President. There was a
smooth transition of responsibilities and powers which were in the hands of
Arafat to other people; the transition was done according to the laws and
regulations adopted by the PLO and the Palestinian Authority. As a result,
Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) was charged with the Chair of the PLO, Ahmed Qurai’
(Abu Ala’) was charged with the National Security Council, Farok Al Qaddumi
chaired Fateh movement, and Rawhi Fattooh was temporarily charged with the
presidency of the Palestinian Authority until Presidential elections are held
within 60 days according to the Palestinian temporary constitution. Fattooh made
this clear upon swearing in as a temporary president of the Palestinian
Authority.
Upon the declaration of the
intended elections, the Palestinian leadership intensified its meetings with the
Palestinian political factions to discuss the subject of elections. Some
political factions urged Palestinian people to call for general elections
(legislative and local council elections) along with the presidential elections.
Until the day of this poll, meetings between members of the PA and members of
the leadership of the Palestinian organizations are still going on for the
purpose of resolving the issues of the type of elections, who will participate
and on what grounds.
The issue of the participation
of East Jerusalem residents in the elections continues to be a matter of debate.
While more than one Palestinian official declared that no elections can be
conducted without the participation of the Jerusalem residents, the Israeli
Government has not resolved the subject yet which has great political
significance for both Palestinians and Israelis. On the other side of the
Palestinian scene, the nature of the sickness that led to the death of the
President continues to be unidentified; there are several estimates and
interpretations of the cause of the president’s death. The Palestinian
leadership avowed that it would continue its relentless efforts to unfold the
reason of the president’s death and acquaint the Palestinian people and the
world at large with the reality of the disease that put an end to the life of
President Arafat.
The Results
Following are the results of
the special poll, which was conducted by the Center of Opinion Polls and Survey
Studies at Najah National University during the period from November 19-20,
2004. An-Najah National University took full sponsorship of this Poll.
This special poll basically
concentrates on the internal political consequences of the death of President
Arafat especially as it relates to the elections and to the attitudes of the
Palestinian public towards them. The sample included 1360 persons whose age
group is 18 years and above and who have the right to vote. The sample forms one
per thousand from among the total number of Palestinian people of this age
group. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 860 persons from the West
Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the
margin of error is about ±3%. Still 2.2% of the members of the sample refused to
answer the questionnaire.
The Main Results
- 14.6% from among
respondents support conducting presidential elections only, 59.3% support
conducting presidential and legislative elections simultaneously, and 21.2%
support conducting presidential elections and assigning a later date for
legislative elections.
- 67.0% will participate in
the elections if presidential elections only are conducted, and 20.3% will
not participate.
- 30.5% will be committed to
resolutions made by Palestinian organizations which may call for
non-participation in elections if they are presidential only.
- 75.4% see that it is
necessary for all political organization to participate in presidential
elections only.
- 75.6% see that it is
necessary to conduct legislative elections along with the presidential ones.
- 30.3% support conducting
legislative elections immediately after presidential elections, 54.4% see
that it is necessary to conduct both elections simultaneously, and 11.5%
don’t see a necessity for conducting legislative elections at the present
time.
- 13.7% only trust the
present legislative council members. 45.1% trust only some of them and 36.6%
do not trust any one of them.
- 47.9% believe that the
coming elections will be honest and 34.4% see the contrary. On the other
hand, 76.3% from among respondents trust the central elections commission,
which was appointed late President Arafat.
- 87.2% believe that the
formation of a united Palestinian government is necessary after conducting
the Presidential elections even if some of the Palestinian organizations
refuse to participate in these elections.
- If Israel doesn’t free
Marwan Barghouthi, respondents choose the following names for PA presidents
according to the following percentages.
- 24.2%
Mahmoud Abbas
- 9.8%
Mustafa Barghouthi
- 4.3%
Abdul Sattar Qassem
- 4.0%
Ahmad Qurai
- 1.7%
Talal Siddar, and
- 48.2%
say that they will decide at the time of elections.
- An independent candidate
for presidency receives 12.9% of respondents’ votes while 34.3% vote for a
Fateh candidate and 11.5% vote for a Hamas candidate.
- 63.2% of respondents
oppose conducting elections that would exclude the participation of East
Jerusalem residents.
- 90.5% of respondents are
concerned with knowing the nature of the sickness that led to the death of
President Arafat and 93.2% see that it is necessary to publish the medical
report of President Arafat.
- 80.3% from among
respondents believe that President Arafat died by poisoning.
- 30.0% believes that Ahmad
Qurai is fully capable of performing his duties as a prime minister while
56.6% see the contrary.
- 45.1% believe that Mahmoud
Abbas is capable of managing the PLO affairs and 41.6% see the contrary.
- 9.3% believe that the new
president will keep the same old staff members that worked with Arafat, and
34.1% believe that he will replace them.
- 11.6% believe that the
American President is serious in his vision of the creation of an
independent Palestinian state by the end of his term.
As for
political affiliation, respondents give the following results:
- People’s party |
1.0 |
- Democratic Front |
1.6 |
- Islamic Jihad |
3.9 |
- Fateh
|
37.9 |
- Hamas
|
16.5 |
- Fida
|
0.7 |
- Popular
Front |
2.6 |
- Independent
Nationalist |
8.8 |
- Independent Islamist |
6.1 |
- None of the above |
19.8 |
- Other |
1.0 |
The General Results
Which type of elections do
you support?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
Presidential only |
14.6 |
15.9 |
12.2 |
Presidential and
legislative simultaneously |
59.3 |
59.3 |
59.2 |
Presidential elections
with an assigned date for legislative elections |
21.1 |
19.3 |
24.2 |
No opinion; I do not know |
5.1 |
5.5 |
4.4 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
If presidential elections
only are to be held, will you participate in such elections?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
Yes, I will |
67.0 |
68.3 |
64.8 |
No, I will not |
20.3 |
20.1 |
20.6 |
I will decide then |
11.8 |
10.9 |
13.2 |
No opinion; I do not know |
1.0 |
0.7 |
1.4 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
If some political
organizations decide not to participate in the presidential elections, will you
abide by their decision?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
Yes, I will |
30.5 |
30.2 |
31.0 |
No, I will not |
46.7 |
46.6 |
46.8 |
I will decide then |
21.0 |
21.4 |
20.4 |
No opinion; I do not know |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Do you see it necessary for
all political factions to participate in elections for the president only?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
Yes |
75.4 |
77.6 |
71.8 |
No |
21.8 |
19.7 |
25.4 |
No opinion; I do not know |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Do you see it
necessary that a legislative election be held simultaneously with a presidential
election?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
Yes |
75.6 |
75.6 |
75.6 |
No |
21.0 |
20.6 |
21.8 |
No opinion; I do not know |
3.4 |
3.8 |
2.6 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
In general,
do you see that legislative elections--------------------?
|
|
West Bank |
Gaza Strip
|
be held immediately after
the presidential elections |
30.3 |
29.4 |
31.8 |
be held simultaneously
with the presidential elections |
54.4 |
54.5 |
54.2 |
are not necessary at the
present time |
11.5 |
11.5 |
11.6 |
no opinion; I do not know |
3.8 |
4.5 |
2.4 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
In general,
do you trust the present legislative council members?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip
|
Yes |
13.7 |
17.1 |
7.8 |
Some of them |
45.1 |
45.7 |
44.2 |
None of them |
46.6 |
31.9 |
44.8 |
No opinion; I do not know |
4.6 |
5.3 |
3.2 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Do you think
that the coming elections, whether they are presidential or legislative, will be
honest and fair?
|
Total |
West bank |
Gaza Strip |
Yes |
47.9 |
50.0 |
44.4 |
No |
34.4 |
34.1 |
35.0 |
No opinion; I do not know |
17.6 |
15.9 |
20.6 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Now that
Arafat is dead, do you support or appose the formation of a united national
government after conducting presidential elections if some Palestinian factions
refuse to participate in these elections?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
I support |
87.2 |
87.4 |
86.8 |
I oppose |
11.0 |
11.4 |
10.4 |
No opinion; I do not know |
1.8 |
1.2 |
2.8 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
If Israel
does not set Marwan Al Barghouthi free, which of the following personalities do
you vote for as a president of the Palestinian Authority?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
Abdul Sattar Qassim |
4.3 |
4.7 |
3.6 |
Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) |
24.2 |
19.7 |
32.0 |
Mustafa Al Barghouthi |
9.8 |
9.2 |
10.8 |
Talal Sidder |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
Ahmad Qurai |
4.0 |
4.9 |
2.4 |
I will decide then
|
48.2 |
53.3 |
39.4 |
Others |
7.9 |
6.6 |
10.0 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Which of the
following presidential candidates do you vote for?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
An independent candidate |
12.9 |
14.2 |
10.6 |
A Fateh candidate |
34.3 |
31.2 |
39.8 |
A Hamas candidate |
11.5 |
9.9 |
14.4 |
A leftist candidate |
4.2 |
3.1 |
6.0 |
I will decide then |
34.5 |
38.7 |
27.2 |
No opinion, I do not know |
2.6 |
2.9 |
2.0 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
If Israel
prevents East Jerusalem residents from participation in the elections, do you
support or oppose conducting elections without the participation of East
Jerusalem residents?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
I support |
32.7 |
35.2 |
28.4 |
I oppose |
63.2 |
61.6 |
65.8 |
No opinion; I do not know |
4.1 |
3.1 |
5.8 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Does knowing
the nature of the sickness that led to the decease of President Arafat concern
you?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
Yes |
90.5 |
92.8 |
86.6 |
No |
8.2 |
6.4 |
11.4 |
No opinion; I do not know |
1.3 |
0.8 |
2.0 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Do you think
that there is a need to make public the medical report of President Arafat after
the French Government hands it in to his family?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
Yes |
93.2 |
95.5 |
89.4 |
No |
5.4 |
3.1 |
9.2 |
No opinion; I do not know |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Several
Palestinian personalities support the conviction that Arafat died by being
poisoned, do you believe this?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
Yes |
80.3 |
80.5 |
80.0 |
No |
8.9 |
7.4 |
11.4 |
No opinion; I do not know |
10.8 |
12.1 |
8.6 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Do you believe that Ahmad
Qurai is fully capable of performing the duties of a prime minister?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
Yes |
30.0 |
35.1 |
21.2 |
No |
56.6 |
49.1 |
69.6 |
No opinion; I do not know |
13.4 |
15.8 |
9.2 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Do you think
that Mahmoud Abbas (Abu-Mazen) is capable of managing the PLO affairs?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
Yes |
45.1 |
44.5 |
46.0 |
No |
41.6 |
41.4 |
42.0 |
No opinion; I do not know |
13.3 |
14.1 |
12.0 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Now that President Bush won
the elections for a second term, do you think that he is serious in his
intentions to implement his vision of the creation of a Palestinian state by the
end of his term?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
Yes |
11.6 |
12.6 |
10.0 |
No |
81.7 |
80.1 |
84.4 |
No opinion; I do not know |
6.7 |
7.3 |
5.6 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
What do you think that the
coming president of the Palestinian Authority will do?
|
Total
|
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
He will keep the same old
team that worked with President Arafat |
9.3 |
10.2 |
7.6 |
He will replace the old
team with a new one. |
34.1 |
32.6 |
36.8 |
He will keep some of the
members of the old team. |
44.0 |
44.1 |
44.0 |
Others |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
No opinion; I do not know |
12.2 |
12.7 |
11.4 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Which of the following
parties and political affiliations do you support?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
People’s party |
1.0 |
1.3 |
0.6 |
Democratic Front |
1.6 |
0.9 |
2.8 |
Islamic Jihad |
3.9 |
3.0 |
5.4 |
Fateh |
37.9 |
35.8 |
41.4 |
Hamas |
16.5 |
14.5 |
20.0 |
Fida |
0.7 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
Popular Front |
2.6 |
2.4 |
3.0 |
I am an independent nationalist |
8.8 |
7.8 |
10.6 |
I am an independent Islamist |
6.1 |
6.2 |
6.0 |
I do not support any of the above |
19.8 |
26.4 |
8.4 |
Others, specify |
1.0 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |