It all began with Arkadi Gaidamak. Last November the Russian Jewish oligarch succeeded, apparently unintentionally, to impose a ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian Authority in the Gaza Strip. After an unusually large Hamas rocket barrage on Sderot, Gaidamak responded to the outcry of the residents of that battered town and organized a mass vacation for them in Eilat. PM Ehud Olmert panicked. A few months earlier the government of Israel had confronted severe public criticism for not taking adequate steps to protect the residents of the Galilee during the second Lebanon war. The impromptu vacation village that Gaidamak set up in the center of the country last summer welcomed thousands of instant refugees from the north. Olmert, fearing a repeat performance, accepted the PA's offer of a tahdiya (pause) along the Gaza border. What the rockets didn't produce, the billionaire did. Hamas gave its pledge to PA President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) to cease firing Qassam rockets. Israel committed its forces along the border to observe a total ceasefire--even if it identified Palestinians preparing to fire rockets. Actually, this total ceasefire was not observed for even a day. Palestinian organizations led by Islamic Jihad continued to fire rockets toward the western Negev region. Hamas and Fateh did nothing to stop the firing; in many cases, Hamas' military wing supplied rockets to the smaller groups that continued firing. Some of these organizations rejected any pause with Israel as a matter of principle. Others cited the fact that the IDF was continuing its operations in the West Bank, every week killing "wanted" Palestinians, both armed and unarmed. They viewed their rocket attacks as a suitable response to Israel's aggression in the West Bank. Israel's policy of restraint in Gaza also began to erode. While the IDF avoided artillery fire and massive deployment of tanks, it slowly renewed its use of aircraft to strike at Palestinian rocket squads. Beginning in April, the entry of ground forces to a depth of one km. inside the Strip was again permitted. This gradual escalation, coupled with growing reservations within the Hamas military wing concerning the Mecca agreement and the unity government with Fateh, impelled Hamas too to step up its armed activity. During the past month it renewed sharpshooter, explosive charge and rocket attacks along the border. Israeli political and military circles are increasingly warning that Gaza is about to become a "second Lebanon", and that if Israel does not grasp this reality and preempt by launching a major land incursion into the Strip, it will confront a threat in the South (rockets, explosive charge and anti-tank weapons) reminiscent of the arsenal Hizballah deployed in the North last summer. It is no secret that the IDF has been actively training for several months for precisely this contingency: standing army and reserve units have simulated a variety of scenarios of sharp escalation in Gaza. So are we once again looking at a self-fulfilling prediction? Not necessarily--and here again the reasoning is "Lebanese". Israel may indeed have concluded from the precedent of its summer confrontation with Hizballah that it must not again acquiesce in a growing threat of terrorism against its territory. But by the same token, its government and military decision-makers recognize the dangers involved in a broad operation in Gaza. Olmert, having been burned badly in the Lebanon war and now under the shadow of the Winograd Commission's verdict regarding the hasty judgment he displayed last July, is in no hurry to repeat the adventure in the Strip. In the interim, too, he has learned a few things about the limitations of IDF force. The Israeli public is not convinced that the Qassam nuisance justifies endangering the lives of hundreds of soldiers in an extended operation. Nor is the international community likely this time to show so much understanding for Israel's offensive measures. Above all, there is the fear lest a major military operation not produce any real change in the situation. Anarchy reigns inside Gaza. While it could be argued that a decisive Israeli land operation in southern Lebanon--had it been launched earlier--might have succeeded in establishing a new order there, the moment the IDF withdraws from Gaza the threat is likely to reappear. IDF Chief of General Staff Gabi Ashkenazi understands this well, and is not currently pressing for a major operation. The conventional wisdom tells us that armies are always anxious to restore their sullied honor in a new battle. This does not for the moment appear to be the situation regarding Gaza. The only senior political and military officials currently advocating a major IDF offensive are Major General Yoav Galant, CO Southern Command, and Brigadier General Moshe (Chicko) Tamir, commander of the Gaza Division. For now, they are clearly the minority--but only for now. The problem is that in Israel these decisions always reflect the impact of the most recent armed incident, and particularly the number of casualties involved. Everyone in the Israeli leadership, from Olmert to Galant, knows that escalation to war is merely a matter of a single deadly Qassam. If, God forbid, a rocket falls on a kindergarten in Sderot and massacres children, then a major military operation in the Strip is virtually inevitable.
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