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Date posted: November 12, 2007
By JMCC

* The majority expects the failure of Annapolis Conference and desires to give the peace negotiations a chance

* Slight continuous rise in the popularity of Abbas and Fatah compared with similar downward trend with regards to popularity of Hanieh and Hamas

* The general public is satisfied with the performance of President Abbas and the government of Fayyad; the general public prefers a government with a majority of independent figures

* Rise in level of optimism regarding the formation of a national unity government through dialogue between Fatah and Hamas

The public opinion poll conducted by Jerusalem Media and Communications Center (JMCC) with a sample of 1,200 respondents showed that the majority of the respondents (62%) expects the failure of Annapolis Conference which has been called for by US President Bush, while a ratio of (35.3%) expects the success of the meeting. When asked about the expected scenario in case the Annapolis Conference fails, a ratio of (47%) said nothing will change in the Palestinian general situation, while (28%) of the respondents expect the eruption of a new Intifada, and (21.7%) pointed to the possibility of a third party intervention.

When asked if they desire to give the peace negotiations between the Palestinian and Israeli sides a chance, it is clear that the preliminary negotiations in preparation for Annapolis Conference had a positive impact as a large majority (67.9%) supported peace negotiations in general between the Israelis and Palestinians, which shows a notable rise in support to such negotiations compared with the answers of the respondents during the Intifada. A ratio of (51.3%) supported the negotiations in our April 2003 poll and a ratio of (46.5%) supported the negotiations in our September 2002 poll.

On the other hand, a ratio of (30.6%) of the respondents opposed holding negotiations compared with (45.7%) in April 2003, and (51.9%) in September 2002.

The other index on the desire of the Palestinian public to give a chance to negotiations to end the conflict is clear in the ratio of (53%) who prefer a solution based on two states (one Palestinian state and one Israeli state) compared with (51.1%) in August 2007, and (46.7%) in March 2007. the option of one binational state in all of historical Palestine came in second place with a ratio of (23.5%) supporting this option while a ratio of (8.9%) believe that the solution lies in the establishment of a Palestinian state on all lands of historical Palestine.

On the issue of the right of return for the refugees, a ratio of (66.8%) stress on the need for the return of the refugees to their original homeland while a ratio of (9.7%) supported their return to the Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and a ratio of (9%) supported compensating the refugees as an alternative to return.

On the question of what is the best solution for the Jerusalem question, a majority (52.9%) said Jerusalem must be the capital of all Muslims while a ratio of (26.3%) demand that Jerusalem become the capital of the Palestinian state and West Jerusalem become the capital of the state of Israel. a ratio of (10.6%) only supported the solution of a unified and open Jerusalem as capital of the two states compared with (7.4%) who demanded that Jerusalem become an international city.

Level of trust in politicians and parties

The poll conducted by JMCC during the period November 3-6, 2007 showed a slight rise in popularity of President Mahmoud Abbas and Fatah Movement compared with slight decrease in popularity of the discharged PM Ismail Hanieh and Hamas Movement.

When asking the respondents an open question about the figure they trust most, President Mahmoud Abbas maintained the first rank and got a ratio of (18.3%) support followed by the discharged PM Ismail Hanieh who received (16.3%). PLC member Marwan Barghouthi (in Israeli prison) came in third place with a ratio of (14.3%) and fourth place went equally between PM Salam Fayyad and PLC member Mohammed Dahlan with a ratio of (2.3%) for each. Ratio of those who donít trust any figure decreased to (27.4%) compared with (29.2%) in our August 2007 poll.

When asking the respondents an open question about the faction they trust most, Fatah Movement kept its first rank in enjoying the trust of the majority (40%) compared with (34.4%) in August 2007, and (31.4%) in March 2007, and (30.7%) in September 2006.

Hamas retreated in terms of public confidence compared with previous polls. A ratio of (19.7%) supported Hamas Movement in this poll compared with (21.6%) in August 2007, and (25.2%) in March 2007, and (29.7%) in September 2006.

Performance of the PNA

When asked about their satisfaction regarding the performance of President Abbas as President of the PNA, a ratio of (50.3%) expressed satisfaction with the performance of the President which is an increase in level of satisfaction compared with the poll conducted last August where the President got then (45.3%).

On the occasion of 100 days after the caretaker government headed by Dr. Salam Fayyad assumed office with the majority of its ministers from independent figures and without any representation from Hamas and is almost empty of any Fatah representation, a majority of the respondents (39.0%) prefer that the majority of the ministers in the next government to be independent figures compared with (32.3%) preferring a government with a Fatah majority while (18.3%) prefer a government with a Hamas majority.

When comparing between the performance of the government of Fayyad and the performance of the discharged government of Hanieh in Gaza, a majority believes (43.3%) that the performance of Fayyad's government is better compared with (24.8%) who believe that the performance of Fayyad's government is worse while (23.6%) believe that there is no difference in the performance between the two governments.

Overall, there is relative positive assessment to the performance of the government of Fayyad as a ratio of (37.5%) believes that the performance was better than previous governments while (21.8%) believe the opposite. A ratio of (37.8%) said the government of Fayyad contributed in pushing reform forward compared with (16.8%) who said the opposite. A ratio of (35.2%) said Fayyad's government contributed in reducing level of corruption compared with (23%) who said the opposite, and (32.9%) said internal security has improved during the reign of Fayyad's government compared with (27.3%) who said the opposite.

Internal split

Half of the respondents said there is a possibility to return to a national unity government through dialogue and this opinion represents an increase in level of optimism on solving this crisis compared with (46.8%) who expected unity through dialogue in August 2007 poll.

When asked whether the internal fighting events in Gaza Strip would be repeated in the West Bank, a large majority (68.6%) said there is no chance of seeing the same events happening in the West Bank compared with (27.7%) who expect that the events that happened in Gaza Strip would be repeated in the West Bank. In the same way, a majority (79.6%) donít expect to see Hamas control the West Bank like it did in Gaza Strip while (15.7%) expect the opposite, and maybe the reason for this is that a majority of the people (79%) believes that Hamas power in Gaza Strip is more than its power in the West Bank, compared with (15.8%) who said that Hamas power in the West Bank is either equal or even more than its power in Gaza.

To View the Full Result as PDF (156 KB)

Source: JMCC
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