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Date posted: January 14, 2013
By Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR)

In the aftermath of the Gaza War: Hamasí way is preferred by the majority over Abbasí way as the most effective in ending occupation and building a Palestinian state and Haniyeh defeats Abbas in a presidential election

13-15 December 2012

Main results in numbers

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 13-15 December 2012. Two major developments preceded the conduct of the poll: (1) the Gaza war between Hamas and Israel followed by a ceasefire, a visit by Khalid Mishíal to the Gaza Strip, and Hamasí celebration of victory in the war on the occasion of the movementís launch, (2) the submission of a Palestinian request for the upgrading of the status of Palestine to a non-member state at the UN, the vote at the General Assembly on the request with 138 countries voting in favor, and the return of president Mahmoud Abbas to the West Bank amid public celebrations in support of his UN bid. This press release covers public evaluation of the general West Bank and Gaza conditions, elections, reconciliation, public evaluation of the performance of the governments of Salam Fayyad and Ismail Haniyeh, the internal balance of power between Fateh and Hamas, views of the public on the most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems Palestinians confront today, the Gaza war, the UN vote, and others. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

Main Findings:

The events of the past several weeks have given Hamas a significant boost similar to the one it enjoyed in the aftermath of the breaching of the Rafah border with Egypt in early 2008. The fourth quarter of 2012 shows a dramatic change in public attitude favoring Hamas. Haniyehís popularity increases significantly allowing him to defeat Abbas if new presidential elections are held today. A parliamentary election, if held today, would give Hamas and Fateh an almost equal number of votes. Moreover, positive public evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip increases dramatically and the gap in public perception of conditions in the West Bank compared to conditions in the Gaza Strip widens in favor of the latter; this gap was first registered in our previous poll last September. Needless to say, the outcome of the latest Gaza war between Hamas and Israel is responsible for this change.

Findings are also somewhat positive for Abbas. Evaluation of conditions in the West Bank is more positive today than it was three months ago. Similarly, positive evaluation of Abbasí performance increases in this poll. These results might have been generated by the outcome of the diplomatic warfare at the UN between the PA and Israel. The cessation of demonstrations and internal confrontations that erupted in the West Bank more than three months ago in protest against price rises and the deteriorating economic conditions might have also contributed to the general public perception of improvement in the general conditions in the West Bank. Finally, findings show a dramatic increase in the level of optimism regarding the chances for reconciliation and the reunification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip compared to the situation not only three months ago but most importantly since the separation in June 2007.

But most significantly the poll shows that Hamasís way, as represented by the Gaza war and its outcome, receives the support and confidence of the majority of the public while Abbasí way, represented by the UN bid and the international recognition of the Palestinian state, receives the support and confidence of a little over one quarter. In this regard, it is worth mentioning that the overwhelming majority of Palestinians believe that Hamas has come out victorious in its war with Israel. A majority also believe that conditions in the Gaza Strip will now improve while a majority believes that conditions in the West Bank will now become worse or stay as it was before the UN vote.

(1) Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections:

  • Haniyeh defeats Abbas in a presidential election by 48% to 45%, but Barghouti wins against Haniyeh, 51% to 42%.
  • In a three way presidential elections, Haniyeh receives 39%, Marwan Barghouti 29%, and Abbas 27%.
  • In a parliamentary election, Fateh wins 36% and Hamas 35% of the voters.

If new presidential elections are held today, and only two were nominated, Abbas would receive the vote of 45% and Haniyeh 48% of those participating. The rate of participation in such elections would reach 69%. Three months ago, Abbas received the support of 51% and Haniyeh 40%. In this poll, in the Gaza Strip, Abbas receives 44% and Haniyeh 52% and in the West Bank Abbas receives 45% and Haniyeh 45%. The percentage of vote for Haniyeh is the highest since Hamasí electoral victory in 2006. The previous highest percentage of vote for Haniyeh stood at 47% in March 2008 immediately after the breaching of the Rafah borders with Egypt. Percentage of support for Abbas at that time stood at 46%.

The vote for Haniyeh increases among those who do not use the internet (52%) compared to those who use it on daily basis (44%), among the religious (57%) compared to the somewhat religious (40%), among those who oppose the peace process (74%) compared to those who support the peace process (39%), among non-refugees (50%) compared to refugees (45%), among the illiterates (52%) compared to those holding a BA degree (38%), among the professionals (65%) compared to employees, laborers, and students (37%, 48%, and 48% respectively), and among those who work in the private sector (47%) compared to those who work in the public sector (40%).

If the presidential elections were between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, the former would receive 51% and the latter 42% of the participantsí votes. The rate of participation in this case would reach 73%. In our September poll Barghouti received 61% of the vote and Haniyeh 32%.

If the presidential elections were between three: Mahmud Abbas, Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, Haniyeh would receive the largest percentage (39%) followed by Barghouti (29%), and Abbas (27%). The rate of participation in this case would reach 77%. In our previous poll last September, Barghouti received 45%, Haniyeh 29%, and Abbas 20%.

If new legislative elections are held today with the participation of all factions, 78% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who would participate, 35% say they would vote for Hamas and 36% say they would vote for Fateh, 10% would vote for all other third parties combined, and 20% are undecided. Vote for Hamas in the Gaza Strip stands in this poll at 39% and in the West Bank at 33%. Vote for Fateh in the Gaza Strip stands in this poll at 38% and in the West Bank at 34%. These results indicate a sharp increase in Hamasí popularity compared to our September results when it stood at 28% (31% in the Gaza Strip and 25% in the West Bank). By contrast, Fatehís popularity remained almost unchanged during the same period.

Support for Hamas increases in cities (36%) compared to refugee camps (33%), among women (37%) compared to men (34%), among those whose age is over 50 (39%) compared to those whose age is between 18 and 28 years (30%), among those who do not use the internet (39%) compared to those who use it on daily basis (32%), among the religious (45%) compared to the somewhat religious (28%), among those who oppose the peace process (55%) compared to those who support it (29%), among the illiterates (38%) compared to holders of a BA degree (25%), among the professional (50%) compared to students, laborers, and employees (33%, 30%, and 29% respectively).

(2) Domestic Conditions:

  • Positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip is higher than positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank: 43% to 35%.
  • Percentage of belief that corruption exists in the PA institutions in the West Bank is higher than the percentage of belief that corruption exists in the institutions of the dismissed government in the Gaza Strip: 74% to 53%.
  • 35% believe that people in the West Bank can criticize the PA in the West Bank without fear and 29% believe that people can criticize the authorities in the Gaza Strip without fear.
  • Percentage of safety and security stands at 60% among West Bank residents and 70% among residents of the Gaza Strip.
  • Positive evaluation of the performance of the Haniyeh government is higher than the positive evaluation of the performance of the Fayyad government: 56% to 34%; satisfaction with the performance of president Abbas stands at 54%.
  • Optimism regarding the chances for reconciliation rises to highest level since the split in 2007.

Positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip rises sharply from 25% three months ago to 43% in this poll while 33% say conditions are bad or very bad. Similarly, positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank rises sharply from 19% three months ago to 35% in this poll and 36% say conditions are bad or very bad.

Perception of corruption in PA institutions in the West Bank drops from 79% in our previous poll three months ago to 74% in this poll. Perception of corruption in the public institutions of Hamasí Gaza government stands at 53% compared to 63% three months ago. 24% say there is, and 45% say there is to some extent, press freedom in the West Bank. Similarly, 23% say there is, and 40% say there is to some extent, press freedom in the Gaza Strip. 35% of the Palestinian public say people in the West Bank can criticize the PA in the West Bank without fear. By contrast, 29% of the public say people in the Gaza Strip can criticize the authorities in Gaza without fear. These results indicate a decrease in the perception of freedom to criticize authorities in the West Bank compared to results obtained three months ago when it stood at 42%. Only 49% of the public believe that the local elections that took place in the West Bank last October were fair and 34% say they were not fair.

Perception of safety and security in the West Bank stands at 60% and in the Gaza Strip at 70%. Three months ago these percentages stood at 56% and 64% respectively. Nonetheless, findings show that the percentage of Gazans who seek immigration to other countries stands at 41%; in the West Bank, the percentage stands today at 22%. Last September these percentages stood at 42% and 29% respectively.

Positive evaluation of the performance of the Haniyeh government rises sharply from 35% three months ago to 56% in this poll and positive evaluation of the performance of the Fayyad government increases from 22% to 34% during the same period. Percentage of satisfaction with the performance of President Abbas stands at 54% while 44% say they are dissatisfied with his performance. Three months ago, satisfaction with Abbas stood at 46%. The percentage of positive evaluation of the performance of the Haniyeh government is higher in the West Bank (60%) compared to the Gaza Strip (49%), among men (58%) compared to women (54%), among those over 50 years of age (59%) compared to those between 18 and 28 years old (52%), among Hamas supporters (88%) compared to Fateh supporters (35%), among the religious (64%) compared to the somewhat religious (50%), among those opposed to the peace process (73%) compared to supporters of the peace process (52%), among the illiterates (63%) compared to holders of a BA degree (47%), among merchants (78%) compared to students and employees (52% and 49% respectively), and among those working in the private sector (57%) compared to those who work in the public sector (51%).

In light of the resumption of the dialogue between Fateh and Hamas, 39% say they expect unity between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip to be restored in the near future, 40% believe that unity will be restored but only after a long time, and only 18% say unity will never be restored and that two separate entities will be established in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. In our September poll, the largest percentage (42%) said that unity will never be restored and two separate entities will be established; only 14% said unity will be restored in the near future. The current percentage of optimism regarding reconciliation and restoration of unity is the highest since separation in 2007. At that time, a percentage of 29% believed that unity will be restored within months while 22% said separation will become permanent.

(3) Most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems confronting Palestinians today:

  • 44% believe that the most vital Palestinian goal should be the ending of Israeli occupation and the building of a Palestinian state and 33% say it should be to obtain the right of return.
  • 27% believe that the most serious problem confronting Palestinian society today is the spread of poverty and unemployment and 25% say it is the continuation of occupation and settlement construction.

44% believe that the first most vital Palestinian goal should be to end Israeli occupation in the areas occupied in 1967 and build a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital. By contrast, 33% believe that the first most vital goal should be to obtain the right of return of refugees to their 1948 towns and villages, 14% believe that it should be to build a pious or moral individual and a religious society, one that applies all Islamic teachings, and 9% believe that the first and most vital goal should be to establish a democratic political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians. The most serious problem confronting Palestinian society today is the spread of poverty and unemployment in the eyes of 27% of the public while 25% believe the most serious problem is the continuation of occupation and settlement activities, another 25% say it is the absence of national unity due to the West Bank-Gaza Strip split, 15% believe the most serious problem is corruption in some public institutions, and 6% believe it is the siege and the closure of the Gaza border crossings.

4) Gaza War and the UN Vote:

  • 81% say Hamas came out the winner from its war with Israel.
  • 41% believe that the truce between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip serves Palestinian interests and 39% say it serves the interests of the two sides.
  • The largest percentage (39%) believes that it was Iran that gave Hamas the greatest power to stand up to Israel during the Gaza war, 29% say it was Hamas own capacity that gave it that power, and 20% say it was Egypt.
  • 63% say that now after the truce agreement between Hamas and Israel that followed the last Gaza war conditions in the Gaza Strip are becoming better than before the war.
  • After the UN vote, only 41% expect Palestinian conditions to change for the better.
  • 64% believe that now after the UN vote the US will punish the PA by suspending financial assistance and 79% believe that Israel too will punish the PA.
  • 76% believe that the PA president and government should impose Palestinian sovereignty throughout the West Bank but only 37% believe they will actually do that.
  • To force Israel to withdraw from the Palestinian state, the largest percentage (41%) believes that armed attacks on Israeli army and settlers would be the best way but 24% believe the best way is to return to negotiations.
  • 60% believe that Hamasí way is the best way to end Israeli occupation while only 28% believe Abbasí is the best way.

Findings indicate that Hamas has gained a great political victory in its war with Israel: 81% believe that it came out the winner and only 3% believe that Israel came out the winner; 13% believe neither side came out a winner. Percentage of those who believe that Hamas came out a winner stands at 75% in the Gaza Strip and 84% in the West Bank. Findings also show that 41% believe that the truce that followed the war serves Palestinian interests and a similar percentage (39%) believes that it serves the interests of the Palestinians and Israelis alike and 16% believe that it serves the Israeli interests only. Furthermore, a majority of 63% believes that conditions in the Gaza Strip, now after the truce, are becoming better than before the war while 27% say conditions are the same as before the war and 8% say conditions are becoming worse. Yet, in parallel with this optimism, a majority of 52% believes that Israel will launch a ground offensive against the Gaza Strip in the near future and 43% say it will not.

Findings show that the largest percentage (39%) believes that it was Iranís support and contribution that gave Hamas the greatest power to stand up to Israel during the last war while 29% attribute Hamasí achievement to its own capacity and 20% believe Egyptís contribution was the most helpful. Percentage of those who attribute Hamasí success to Iran increases in the Gaza Strip (41%) compared to the West Bank (38%), in cities and villages (40% and 41% respectively) compared to refugee camps (30%), among men (47%) compared to women (31%), among those whose age is over 50 years (44%) compared to those whose age is between 18 and 28 years (37%), among supporters of Fateh (47%) compared to supporters of Hamas (35%), among holders of a BA degree (46%) compared to illiterates (24%), and among those who work in the public sector (52%) compared to those who work in the private sector (44%).

With regard to conditions of occupation and settlement construction in the aftermath of the UN vote, findings show that only 41% believe they will improve while 37% believe they will remain the same as before the vote and 21% believe they will worsen. Moreover, the overwhelming majority (79%) believes that Israel will punish the Palestinians by suspending the transfer of custom duties and other taxes and 64% believe the US will suspend financial assistance to the PA.

The overwhelming majority (76%) believes that the PA president and government should impose Palestinian sovereignty over the entire West Bank, for example by deploying the Palestinian security services in area C, currently under Israeli control, even if such a deployment leads to a confrontation with the Israeli army and settlers; 21% oppose this measure. Despite this high level of support for imposing sovereignty in the West Bank, most Palestinians (56%) do not believe the PA government and president will actually take this measure while 37% believe they will. Similarly, while 71% support and 25% oppose Palestinian insistence on taking control of the border terminal with Jordan at the Allenby Bridge even if such a step leads to suspension of travel across the bridge, a majority of 56% believes the PA president and government will not do that and 36% believe they will do that.

We asked the public about its views regarding the best means of forcing Israel to end its occupation of the territories of the Palestinian state, now after the UN vote. The largest percentage (41%) believe that the answer lies in armed attacks against the army and settlers, 30% said it was return to negotiations, and 24% believed it was non-violent resistance. In our previous poll in September 2012, 32% selected armed attacks, 33% selected non-violent resistance, and 28% selected negotiations.

Belief that armed resistance is the answer is higher in the Gaza Strip (46%) than in the West Bank (39%), among men (47%) than women (35%), among those whose age is between 18 and 28 years (44%) compared to those whose age is over 50 years (38%), among those who use the internet on daily basis (46%) compared to those who use it once a month (24%), among supporters of Hamas (63%) compared to supporters of Fateh (25%), among the religious (46%) compared to the somewhat religious (38%), among those who oppose the peace process (67%) compared to those who support the peace process (33%), among holders of BA degree (47%) compared to illiterates (39%), among students (47%) compared to farmers, housewives, laborers, and retirees (30%, 34%, 35%, and 37% respectively), and among those who work in the private sector (46%) compared to those who work in the public sector (38%).

Finally, we asked the public to compare Hamasí way or approach, given the Gaza war and its outcome, to Abbasí way, given the UN vote and its outcome, and to select the one it prefers as the most effective in ending occupation and building a Palestinian state. Findings show that 60% believe that Hamasí way is the most preferable while only 28% selected Abbasí way. Belief in Hamasí way increases in the Gaza Strip (66%) compared to the West Bank (56%), among supporters of Hamas (93%) compared to supporters of Fateh (30%), among the religious (64%) compared to the somewhat religious (57%), among those who oppose the peace process (81%) compared to those who support the peace process (53%), and among students (65%) compared to farmers and employees (43% and 52% respectively).

5) Peace Process:

  • Support for a permanent settlement along the lines of the Clinton Parameters and the Geneva Initiative drops from 50% a year ago to 43% in this poll.
  • 52% support and 48% oppose the two-state solution but 62% believe that it is impossible these days to reach a permanent settlement with Israel and 60% believe the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state are slim to non-existent.
  • 58% believe the two-state solution is no longer practical and 39% believe it is still possible.
  • Only 27% support a one-state solution in which Jews and Palestinians would have equal rights and 71% oppose it.
  • 53% support and 45% oppose the Arab initiative for peace with Israel.
  • 74% are worried that they or members of their family would be hurt by Israelis or that their land would be confiscated or homes demolished.
  • 61% believe that Israelís long term goal is to extend its borders to include all areas between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and to expel its Arab population and 20% believe Isrealís long term goal is to annex the occupied territories and deny the Palestinians their political rights.

Findings show that 43% support and 56% oppose a package of a permanent status agreement based on the Clinton Parameters and the Geneva Initiative. Support for this package stood at 50% in December 2011. The Clinton parameters for a Palestinian-Israeli permanent settlement were presented by President Clinton at a meeting with Israeli and Palestinian officials almost ten years ago, on December 23, 2000, following the collapse of the July 2000 Camp David summit. The Geneva Initiative, along similar lines, was made public around the end of 2003. These parameters address the most fundamental issues which underlie the Palestinian-Israeli conflict: (1) final borders and territorial exchange; (2) refugees; (3) Jerusalem; (4) a demilitarized Palestinian state; (5) security arrangements; and (6) end of conflict. We have been addressing these issues periodically since December 2003, and in the current poll we revisited these crucial issues following the diplomatic stalemate throughout 2012.

Findings, as the summary table below shows, indicate that the public rejects four items in the package and accept two. The following is a summary of the items and the attitudes to each:

(1) Final Borders and Territorial Exchange: 53% support or strongly support and 45% oppose or strongly oppose an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with the exception of some settlement areas in less than 3% of the West Bank that would be swapped with an equal amount of territory from Israel in accordance with a map that was presented to the Palestinian respondents. The map was identical to that presented to respondents in December 2011, when support for this compromise, with its map, stood at 63% and opposition at 36%.

(2) Refugees: 41% support and 56% oppose a refugee settlement in which both sides agree that the solution will be based on UN resolutions 194 and 242. The refugees would be given five choices for permanent residency. These are: the Palestinian state and the Israeli areas transferred to the Palestinian state in the territorial exchange mentioned above; no restrictions would be imposed on refugee return to these two areas. Residency in the other three areas (in host countries, third countries, and Israel) would be subject to the decision of these states. As a base for its decision Israel will consider the average number of refugees admitted to third countries like Australia, Canada, Europe, and others. All refugees would be entitled to compensation for their ďrefugeehoodĒ and loss of property. In December 2011, 45% agreed with an identical compromise while 53% opposed it.

(3) Jerusalem: 29% support and 70% oppose a Jerusalem compromise in which East Jerusalem would become the capital of the Palestinian state with Arab neighborhoods coming under Palestinian sovereignty and Jewish neighborhoods coming under Israeli sovereignty. The Old City (including al Haram al Sharif) would come under Palestinian sovereignty with the exception of the Jewish Quarter and the Wailing Wall that would come under Israeli sovereignty. In December 2011, an identical compromise obtained 40% support and 59% opposition.

(4) Demilitarized Palestinian State: 28% support and 71% oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state that would have no army, but would have a strong security force and would have a multinational force deployed in it to ensure its security and safety. Israel and Palestine would be committed to end all forms of violence directed against each other. A similar compromise received in December 2011, 32% support, and opposition reached 67%. This item receives the lowest level of support by Palestinians. Unlike the refugees and Jerusalem components, this issue has not received due attention in public discourse, as it should, since it may become a major stumbling block in the efforts to reach a settlement.

(5) Security Arrangements: 46% support and 53% oppose a compromise whereby the Palestinian state would have sovereignty over its land, water, and airspace, but Israel would have the right to use the Palestinian airspace for training purposes, and would maintain two early warning stations in the West Bank for 15 years. A multinational force would remain in the Palestinian state and in its border crossings for an indefinite period of time. The task of the multinational force would be to monitor the implementation of the agreement, and to monitor territorial borders and coast of the Palestinian state including the presence at its international crossings. In December 2011, 50% of the Palestinians supported this parameter while 49% opposed it.

(6) End of Conflict: 59% support and 39% oppose a compromise on ending the conflict that would state that when the permanent status agreement is fully implemented, it will mean the end of the conflict and no further claims will be made by either side. The parties will recognize Palestine and Israel as the homelands of their respective peoples. The comparable figures in December 2011 were 63% support and 35% opposition.

Support for the package is higher in the Gaza Strip, standing at 53%, than in the West Bank, standing at 37%, among supporters of the peace process (50%) compared to those opposed to the peace process (24%), among those who would vote for Fateh and third parties (54% and 50% respectively) compared to those who would vote for Hamas or those who are undecided regarding whom they will vote for (36% and 40% respectively), among those whose age is between 18 and 28 years (48%) compared to those whose age is between 40 and 50 years (35%), and among those who live in cities (45%) compared to those who live in villages and towns (32%), and among those who work in the public sector (49%) compared to those who work in the private sector (41%).

Findings also show that 42% of the public believe that a majority among Palestinians supports a settlement along these lines while 49% believe a majority opposes it and 10% say it does not know the position of the majority. Only 33% believe that a majority among Israelis supports such a package while 56% believe a majority of Israelis opposes it. Perhaps for this reason, and others, only 36% believe that it is possible these days to reach a permanent settlement with Israel while 62% believe that it is impossible to reach such a settlement. Moreover, the public is pessimistic about the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel in the next five years: 60% believe the chances to be slim or non-existent and 38% believe them to be medium or high.

As in our September 2012 poll, findings show that a small majority of 52% supports the two-state solution and 48% oppose it. Similarly, 53% support and 45% oppose the Arab Peace Initiative that calls for a two-state solution and the normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab states. But findings show also that a majority of 58% does not believe that the two-state solution is practical due to Israeli settlement expansion while 39% believe it is still feasible. Moreover, a similar percentage (60%) believes that the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel are slim or non-existent while 38% believe the chances are medium or high. It is worth mentioning in this regard that the percentage of those who believe that the chances for Palestinian statehood are medium or high have increased by 11 percentage points since our last poll in September. The increase might be due to Palestinian success in gaining UN recognition of Palestinian statehood. It is also worth mentioning that despite the belief that the two-state solution is no longer practical, a large majority of 71% opposes the alternative one-state solution in which Arabs and Jews are treated equally; only 27% support the one-state solution.

Findings show that three quarters of the public (74%) are worried and 26% are not worried that they or members of their families would be hurt by Israelis or their land confiscated or homes demolished. Moreover, 80% believe that Israelís long term goal is to expand its borders to include all territories between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and expel their Palestinian population or deny them their political rights. When asked about the long term goal of the PLO and the PA, 62% said that it is to recover all or some of the Palestinian territories occupied in 1967 and 32% said it is to defeat Israel and recover the 1948 territories or defeat Israel and destroy its Jewish population.

Source: PSR, 13 January. 2013
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