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Date posted: September 11, 2013
By Arab World for Research and Development

Highlights

  • 57 percent of Palestinian youth believe regional events (Arab revolutions) will negatively affect the Palestinian situation.
  • 45 percent of youth in Gaza believe an uprising similar to those in Egypt and Tunisia could occur against the Hamas government, and 48 percent would support such an event.
  • 26 percent of youth in the West Bank state that an uprising similar to those that have occurred in Egypt and Tunisia could occur against the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, and 15 percent would support it.
  • 83 percent report following more recent changes in Egypt.
  • 57 percent believe Morsiís ousting will have a negative effect on reconciliation between Fateh and Hamas.
  • 50 percent believe the removal of Morsi will have a negative impact on the peace process.

Introduction:

AWRAD recently completed an ďOpinion Poll of Palestinian Youth.Ē In the course of this survey, AWRAD surveyed 1,200 Palestinian youth (18-30 years old) in the West Bank and Gaza, similar to a survey completed in January 2012. The results provide illustrative data on the attitudes, perceptions, and beliefs of Palestinian youth. The current press release is one in a series highlighting findings on the following issues: the peace process, political and social activism, the Arab Spring and its implications on Palestine, evaluation of leaders and political groups, and policy priorities. The focus of this specific release is primarily youth attitudes regarding the changes occurring in the Arab World, and their effect on Palestinian politics. The following are significant results obtained in this survey:

Effects of the Arab Spring on Palestine:

Palestinian youth are distinctly less positive today about the effects of the ďArab SpringĒ on Palestinian affairs than they were in AWRADís previous youth poll over a year ago. Presently, only 18 percent of all youth believe regional changes are positively affecting the Palestinian situation; a sharp drop of 25 points from January 2102. In contrast, 57 percent now view the Arab Spring negatively; a rise of 19 points. 21 percent believe that these events have no impact.

  • Pessimism rises universally among Palestinian youth. The majority of youth in the West Bank (55 percent) and Gaza Strip (60 percent) presently believe the regional changes, which are occurring, are negatively impacting Palestine. These are sharp increases of 24 points and 26 points, respectively. Only 22 percent of youth in Gaza, and 16 percent in the West Bank still believe that the changes are producing positive effects.
  • More youth believe that Palestine is influenced by regional events. In AWRADís 2012 youth survey, a third of West Bank youth (32 percent) and a fifth of those in Gaza (20 percent) believed regional events had Ďno effectí on Palestine. In the current round, those rates have fallen to 25 percent and 15 percent respectively. This reflects a growing view that Palestine cannot avoid implications from the changes occurring regionally.

Possibility of Uprising against Palestinian Governments:

Palestinian youth still consider the possibility of similar uprisings against the governments in the West Bank or Gaza Strip as unlikely. 64 percent of youth believe there is no possibility of such events in the West Bank, and an additional 53 percent say the same about Gaza. However, though the rate of disagreement regarding the West Bank government has remained stable, it has fallen by 6 points with respect to the government in Gaza. In addition, Palestinian youth continue to oppose such uprisings. Overall, 72 percent state they would oppose an uprising in the West Bank, and 63 percent say the same in regards to Gaza. Only 21 percent of respondents would support such events in the West Bank, and 30 percent in Gaza.

  • Gazans increasingly believe a similar uprising is possible against Hamas. 45 percent of respondents in Gaza report such an uprising in their region was likely; an increase of 9 points. Still, 51 percent of youth in Gaza believe an uprising against the Hamas government is not possible; a decline of 13 points.
  • Gaza youth noticeably more supportive of such an uprising. Almost half of youth in Gaza (48 percent) presently say they would support an uprising that would remove their government, an increase of 10 points. Only 48 percent of Gazan youth oppose an uprising, a sharp drop from the 62 percent who stated the same in AWRADís 2012 survey.
  • West Bank youth less certain about an uprising against their government. In the present survey, only 26 percent of youth in the West Bank state that an uprising similar to Egypt or Tunisia could occur in their region; a decline of 8 points. The rate of disagreement among West Bank youth (65 percent) has not changed, but those who report they ďdonít knowĒ has risen by 4 points to 9 percent. 63 percent of respondents in Gaza state that such an event is not possible in the West Bank; a decline of 8 points. Gaza youth who are uncertain has also risen by 5 points (6 percent)
  • Youth in the West Bank less supportive of an uprising against the PA. In the present survey, only 15 percent of youth in the West Bank state they would support an uprising similar to Tunisia or Egypt in their region; a decrease of 12 points. Opposition has risen with 77 percent now reporting they do not favor such an action. Gaza youth are more supportive of an uprising in the West Bank: 31 percent say they would favor it - a stable rate - while 64 percent report they would not, a 4-point decrease.

Impact of Events in Egypt:

Palestinian youth are very aware of recent developments in Egypt with 83 percent reporting that they are following events. In addition, 57 percent believe Morsiís ousting will have a negative effect on reconciliation between Fateh and Hamas, while 21 percent believe it will be positive, and 22 percent believe it will have no effect. Furthermore, 50 percent believe the removal of Morsi will have a negative impact on the peace process with Israel, while 24 percent believe it will be positive, and 27 percent believe it will be a non-factor.

  • Youth in Gaza more actively following events. 91 percent of respondents in Gaza report following recent developments in Egypt compared to 79 percent in the West Bank. This is a likely consequence of Egyptís proximity to Gaza; its control over the Rafah crossing; and its role in local affairs.
  • Youth in Gaza more likely to believe Morsiís removal positively affects reconciliation. 29 percent of youth in Gaza believe that the removal of Egyptís President will be beneficial for reconciliation between Hamas and Fateh, compared to only 16 percent in the West Bank. Youth in the West Bank are less likely to believe the removal to be significant, as 28 percent say it will have Ďno effectí on reconciliation, compared to only 11 percent in Gaza. The percentage of youth who believe the event will have negative implications is not affected by territory.
  • A larger percent of West Bank youth believes Morsiís removal irrelevant for the peace process. 33 percent of youth in the West Bank believe the removal of Mohammed Morsi will have no effect on the peace process with Israel, while only 16 percent in Gaza state the same. Youth in Gaza are far more likely to believe Morsiís removal is a significant issue: 28 percent state the event will have a positive impact on the peace process, compared to 21 percent in the West Bank, while another 56 percent say the effect will be negative, compared to only 46 percent in the West Bank.

To View the Full Result as PDF

Source: AWRAD
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