MIFTAH
Friday, 26 April. 2024
 
Your Key to Palestine
The Palestinian Initiatives for The Promotoion of Global Dialogue and Democracy
 
 
 

Palestine and Iraq are the two most prominent problems on the rugged political landscape of the Middle East. The outcome of the conflicts that are currently raging in these two trouble spots will play a crucial role in shaping the future of the entire region. It is tempting to look at Palestine and Iraq as two separate and unrelated issues but to do so would be a grave mistake. Although they are geographically removed from one another, the two issues are connected in intricate and important ways.

The link between Palestine and Iraq goes at least as far back as the first Gulf war. It was Saddam Hussein himself who, ten days after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990, created the link by suggesting that Iraq would withdraw from Kuwait if Israel withdrew from all occupied Arab territories. That was the mother of all linkages! Both occupations were illegal and both were condemned by a whole raft of UN resolutions. To insist on immediate and unconditional Iraqi withdrawal from Kuwait and to tolerate at the same time Israel’s continuing occupation of the Arab territories it had captured by force in 1967 would have exposed America’s double standards for all to see. So the administration headed by Papa Bush rejected simultaneous linkage in favour of deferred linkage. In other words, it promised that once Iraq was out of Kuwait, it would address the Arab-Israeli problem.

In the aftermath of the war, the elder Bush exerted serious pressure on Israel to negotiate with the Palestinians and this pressure contributed to his defeat in the 1992 presidential elections. The younger Bush is anxious not to repeat his father’s mistake. From the very beginning he therefore adopted a hands-off approach to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. The contrast between the first and the second Bush administrations could hardly be more pronounced. When George W. Bush was elected (or rather appointed by the Supreme Court), most people expected to follow in his father’s footsteps with a Bush II administration. What actually emerged was more akin to a Reagan III administration. If Papa Bush was the most even-handed of American Presidents with the possible exception of Jimmy Carter, Baby Bush surprisingly turned out to be the most pro-Israeli President in American history. He is more partial to Israel than Harry S. Truman, Lyndon Johnson, Ronald Reagan, and even Bill Clinton who was once described by an Israeli newspaper as the last Zionist.

The basic premise behind current US policy towards the Middle East reflects this strong pro-Israeli bias. The premise is that the key issue in Middle East politics is not Palestine, but Iraq. This premise is wrong at least in one respect: for the overwhelming majority of Arabs and Muslims everywhere, Iraq was a non-issue during the build up to the war. The real issue was Palestine and, more specifically, Israel’s oppression of the Palestinians and America’s blind support for Israel despite its oppression of the Palestinians. That was the key issue.

In an attempt to win public opinion to their side, American proponents of the war on Iraq promised that action against Iraq would form part of a broader engagement with the problems of the Middle East. The road to Jerusalem, they argued, went through Baghdad. Cutting off Saddam Hussein’s support for Palestinian terrorism was, according to them, an essential first step in the quest for a settlement.

Tony Blair went even further when he declared that resolving the Israeli-Palestinian dispute was as important to Middle East peace as removing Saddam Hussein from power. The motion passed by the House of Commons, on 18 March last year, explicitly welcomed ‘the imminent publication of the Quartet’s roadmap as a significant step to bringing a just and lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians and … endorses the role of Her Majesty’s Government in actively working for peace between Israel and Palestine.’

In the year since this motion was passed both the American and the British governments have been absorbed in the war in Iraq and its messy aftermath and the attention they paid to the dispute between Israel and Palestine has been intermittent at best. In the absence of sustained engagement, the situation in Palestine went from bad to worse with no end in sight to the vicious cycle of violence and nothing remotely resembling a peace process. Benign neglect is not what was promised nor is it a viable option on the Israel-Palestinian front. In this respect nothing has changed since the heady days of regime change in Baghdad.

The Palestine question was always the core of the Arab-Israeli conflict and it is still the core today. Ten years ago the Oslo Accord was signed at the White House and clinched with a hesitant handshake between Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat. In essence, the Oslo Accord amounted to three things: the PLO recognized Israel, Israel recognized the PLO as representative of the Palestinian people, and the two sides agreed to resolve all their outstanding differences by peaceful means.

Soon after the Oslo Accord was signed, I had a debate with the late Edward Said, who was an old and dear friend, in the 21 October 1993 issue of the London Review of Books. Edward made the case against; I made the case for Oslo. Edward’s article was called, “A Palestinian Versailles.” His argument was that the Oslo Accord was an instrument of Palestinian surrender – a Palestinian Versailles. It compromised fundamental Palestinian national interests. It did not involve the promise, let alone the guarantee, of an independent Palestinian state at the end of the transition period. Edward regarded Oslo as an agreement between a very strong party and a very weak party, which was bound to reflect the balance of power between these two parties.

I conceded at the outset all the shortcomings and omissions of the Oslo Accord, but regarded it as an important step in the right direction. For all its limitations, it seemed to me like a major breakthroughs in the hundred-year history of this tragic conflict. I believed that it would set in motion an irreversible - a gradual and controlled - but irreversible process of Israeli withdrawal from nearly all of the occupied territories, and that an independent Palestinian state would emerge by the end of the transition period.

In the years since 1993, I have often asked myself: who was right and who was wrong? Who had the correct analysis? When things were going well, when progress was being made, when Oslo II was signed, for example, I thought that I was right and Edward Said was wrong. When the political process stalled with the inevitable return to violence, I thought that Edward Said was right and I was wrong. From today’s vantage point, ten years on, it is indisputable that I was wrong and Edward Said was right in his analysis of the nature and limitations of the Oslo Accord.

The critics of the Oslo Accord say that it was a flawed agreement, and therefore doomed to failure from the start. I beg to differ. My explanation of why Oslo failed is that Israel, under the leadership of the Likud, reneged on its share of the deal. Benjamin Netanyahu spent his three years in power, from 1996 until 1999, in a largely successful attempt at freezing, delaying, undermining, and derailing the entire Oslo peace process. So the election of Ehud Barak in 1999 was a landmark in Israel’s history. A great many Israelis, myself included, pinned their hopes on Ehud Barak to resume the path towards comprehensive peace in the Middle East.

In the last sentence of the epilogue to my book The Iron Wall, I described Barak’s victory as the sunrise after the three dark and terrible years during which Israel had been led by the unreconstructed proponents of the Iron Wall. Sadly, as prime minister, Ehud Barak turned out to be a dismal failure. He pursued a strategy of Syria first, yet he failed to achieve a breakthrough on the Syrian track.

Belatedly and reluctantly, he turned to the Palestinian track. The crunch came at the Camp David summit in July 2000. The summit failed. Why did it fail? There are two views. There is Ehud Barak’s version that at Camp David he put on the table a package that touched on all the final status issues, that it was the most generous package that any Israeli prime minister could ever make, and that Yasser Arafat turned him down and made a strategic decision to return to violence. So Yasser Arafat alone was responsible for the collapse of the summit.

On the other hand, there is the revisionist view, expounded by Robert Malley and Hussein Agha in the New York Review of Books on 9 August 2001. It exposes the pitfalls in Barak’s package, it shows understanding for Arafat’s predicament and, and it puts most of the blame for the failure of the summit on the Israeli-American axis. But in the final analysis, there is surely enough blame to go round. Both sides made very serious mistakes. Barak’s method of peace by ultimatum did not create a congenial context for bargaining while his absolute insistence on closure precluded an interim agreement. Arafat for his part failed to make serious counter-proposals and as a result lost the battle for international public opinion. Both leaders missed an historic opportunity. Bill Clinton compounded these mistakes by acting not as an honest broker but as Israel’s friend and ally – as the last Zionist.

Beyond the specific episode of Camp David, lurks the broader question: what was the cause of the breakdown of the Oslo peace process? Clearly, there were many reasons and the Palestinians certainly contributed to the breakdown of this process by reneging on their original commitment to eschew violence. But the single most important factor, in my opinion, was the expansion of Israeli settlements on the West Bank. All Israeli governments after Oslo – Likud as well as Labour, and especially Ehud Barak’s government – continued to expand settlements on the West Bank.

Indeed, they used the Oslo accords as a cover for their remorseless and relentless territorial expansionism. This was in the best Zionist tradition of ‘creating facts on the ground’ but it was utterly incompatible with the professed aim of putting an end to the conflict. One simply cannot go forward on the political front towards a peace agreement with the Palestinians, and at the same time expropriate more and more Arab land. Israel could have land or peace: it could not have both.

With the collapse of the Camp David summit, the countdown to the return to violence began. The spark that ignited the barrel of gunpowder was Ariel Sharon’s visit to Haram al-Sharif on the 28 September 2000. The visit provoked riots that snow-balled into a full-scale and violent uprising - the Al-Aqsa Intifada.

Bill Clinton made one last effort to bring the two sides back to the negotiating table. On 23 December 2000, he convened the warring parties at the White House, and he presented to them what he modestly called, “The Clinton Parameters.” The Clinton Parameters envisaged an independent Palestinian state over the whole of Gaza and 94-96 per cent of the West Bank with a capital in East Jerusalem. These parameters were the basis for the negotiations between the Israeli and the Palestinian teams at Taba in January 2001. At Taba, the two sides came closer than ever before to reaching a final status agreement – but time ran out on them.

On 6 February, 2001, Ariel Sharon defeated Ehud Barak in the Israeli general elections. Sharon immediately renounced the Taba understandings. Simultaneously, there was a change of administration in Washington and the new administration, headed by George W. Bush, said that the Clinton Parameters went out with the outgoing administration. His Republican administration was not committed to the Clinton Parameters. So the Palestinians were back to square one.

Ariel Sharon’s initial political agenda was the old Likud agenda of “Greater Israel.” Sharon is the champion of violent solutions. President Bush famously described Ariel Sharon as a man of peace. I have done quite a lot of research on this conflict in the last 33 years, but I have not come across a single shred of evidence to support this view of Ariel Sharon as a man of peace. Sharon is a man of war. Three features stand out in his long and checkered career as a soldier and a politician: mendacity, a belief in using military force to solve political problems, and the most savage brutality towards Arab civilians.

9/11 changed everything. It set in motion the American war against terror. This is an open-ended, loosely defined war against an elusive enemy. Ariel Sharon was very quick to jump on the bandwagon of the war against terror. His argument to the Americans was that he was doing in his own little patch what they were doing globally: fighting against terror. The Palestinian Authority was a terrorist organization, he claimed, and he was going to deal with it as a terrorist organization. The administration accepted most of these arguments and abandoned the Palestinians to the tender mercies of General Sharon. At the end of March 2002, he launched the fraudulently-named Operation Defensive Shield, reoccupying the West Bank and destroying much of the infrastructure of the PA. President Bush gave the ‘man of peace’ a free hand to do his worst.

This close association with the Sharon government is in fact a handicap to Bush in his quest for a global coalition to combat terrorism. As Max Hastings pointed out in the Guardian on 11 March: ‘More than a few governments are cooperating less than wholeheartedly with America’s war on terror because they are unwilling to be associated with what they see as an unholy alliance of the Sharon and Bush governments.’

The possibility of using economic leverage to push Sharon into a settlement is not even mentioned. America continues to support Israel to the tune of $3 billion a year. Yet at no time in the last fifty-five years has there been less American restraint on the State of Israel. Moshe Dayan, Israel’s defence minister from 1967 to 1974 used to say: ‘Our American friends us money, arms, and advice. We take the money, we take the arms, and we decline the advice.’ At no time in the history of the special relationship was this truer than it is today.

The influence of the Likud and of its friends in Washington can be detected across the entire spectrum of American policy towards the Middle East. Particularly striking is the ideological convergence between some of the leading neoconservatives in the Bush administration – such as Richard Perle, Paul Wolfowitz, and Douglas Feith – and the hardliners in Ariel Sharon’s inner circle.

In 1996, a group of six Jewish Americans, led by Richard Perle and Douglas Feith, wrote a paper for incoming prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Entitled “A Clean Break”, the paper proposed, in essence, an abrupt reversal of the foreign policies of the Clinton administration towards the Middle East. It argued that pursuing a peace process that embraced the slogan ‘New Middle East’ undermined Israel’s legitimacy and led it into strategic paralysis. Israel was advised to change the nature of its relations with the Palestinians, to ignore the Oslo accords, and to nurture alternatives to Yasser Arafat, presumably collaborators. Israel was also encouraged to exert military pressure on Syria, especially in Lebanon, and to reject ‘land for peace’ on the Golan Heights.

But the authors’ most arresting policy recommendation related to Iraq. ‘This effort [the shaping of Israel’s strategic environment] can focus on removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq – an important Israeli strategic objective in its own right – as a means of foiling Syria’s regional ambitions.’ Thus, five years before the attack on the twin towers, the idea of regime change in Baghdad was already on the agenda of some of Israel’s most fervent Republican supports in Washington.

‘A Clean Break’ is highly revealing about the mindset of its authors. It was largely divorced from the regional reality of the time and naïve in its assumption that a clean break could be made without any regard to what had gone on in the past. It also displayed a curious inability to view the Middle East through anything but Israeli-made glasses. While the authors’ devotion to Israel’s interests was crystal-clear, their implicit identification of those interests with American interests was much more open to question.

One can debate whether the occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip serves Israel’s long-term interests. My own view is that the retention of these territories after the June 1967 war was a catastrophic mistake that transformed Zionism from a national liberation movement for the Jews into a colonial movement that represses and oppresses the Palestinian people. In my own mind I therefore make a clear distinction between Israel within the pre-1967 borders and the Zionist colonial project beyond the Green Line. The former is legitimate; the latter is not. But whether legitimate or not, what possible American interest is served by Israel’s occupation of these territories? Israel’s friends in America have not yet come up with a convincing answer to this question.

The Bush administration’s entire policy towards the Middle East is similarly supportive of Israel’s short-term strategic interests. Bernard Lewis, the 87-year-old Princeton professor, provided the intellectual underpinning for this policy. Many senior members of the administration, notably Vice-President Dick Cheney, are acolytes of the extraordinarily erudite professor. ‘Talking to Mr Lewis’, remarked Richard Perle, is ‘like going to Delphi to see the oracle.’ The two themes in the history of the Islamic countries most heavily underlined by Mr Lewis are failure to modernize and resentment of the West. Israel and Turkey, two non-Arab countries, are held out as the only successful modern states in the region.

Since the Arab countries are incapable of generating reform from within, Mr Lewis recommended an American military invasion to sweep away the existing regimes and to spread democracy throughout the region. The conventional wisdom was thus stood on its head: instead of supporting tyrants to promote stability and protect American interests in the oil-rich Arab world, Mr Lewis advocated the seeding of democracy as America’s best possible ally in the fight against terrorism. In the aftermath of 9/11, he urged a military takeover of Iraq to forestall further and worse terrorist attacks. He wanted to substitute a policy of confrontation for the old and, in his view, ineffectual policy of containment. ‘Get tough or get out’ was the crux of the Lewis Doctrine.

One of the most fervent admirers of Bernard Lewis in the inner circle of the Bush administration is Paul Wolfowitz, the Deputy Defense Secretary and a leading hawk on Iraq. The terrorist attack on September 11 gave Wolfowitz an opportunity to go after Saddam Hussein. Bob Woodward, in his book Bush at War, reveals that in the immediate aftermath of the attack, Wolfowitz advocated a war on Iraq as an alternative to the uncertain prospect of a war in Afghanistan. When his view did not prevail, Wolfowitz kept up the pressure for making Iraq the second target in the war on terror.

One of the arguments for regime change in Baghdad was to put an end to Iraqi support for Palestinian militants and for what was seen as Palestinian intransigence in the peace process with Israel. While Iraq was the main target, the neocons also advocated that America exert relentless military pressure on Syria and on Iran. This stood in marked contrast to the EU policy of critical dialogue and critical engagement. Washington’s policy of confrontation and regime change is fervently supported in Tel Aviv. Here too the benefit to Israel is much more evident than the benefit to America. And here too, the US agenda towards the region appears to incorporate a right-wing Likud agenda.

Regime change in Iraq was always portrayed by the neocons as a very easy task – as a cakewalk. They predicted that the brittle regime would collapse under the first blow and that the long-oppressed Iraqi people would welcome the coalition forces with open arms as liberators. The proclaimed aim of the invasion of Iraq was to reshape the Middle East in America’s image, to turn the Iraqis into a happy nation of Jeffersonian democrats, and to make Iraq a model for the rest of the Arab world. But the expectation that American forces would be welcomed as liberators was at odds with the history of the last ten or twenty years. Americans may not remember this history, but Arabs certainly do.

Iraqis, in particular, remember only too well how America betrayed them at the end of the Gulf War in 1991. Bush Senior encouraged the Iraqi people to rise up against Saddam Hussein only to abandon them to his tender mercies. With American forces standing idly by, Saddam was able to proceed with his customary brutality to put down the Kurdish uprising in the north and the much more serious Shi’ite uprising in the south. If ever there was a time for regime change in Baghdad, February 1991 was that time. The abrupt end of the Desert Storm land campaign, however, left Saddam Hussein in power. The Americans had the perfect chance to get rid of Saddam and they blew it, with disastrous consequences all round. We are all still paying the price for this colossal strategic blunder.

The Iraqi and Arab view is essentially the same as the Third World view of the first Gulf War. Basically, this view holds that America went into Iraq with all sorts of fancy military technology, smashed up the place, left all the problems unresolved, created a whole host of new problems, and then went home to declare victory. The Lewis doctrine calls for an understanding of the past as the essential basis for building a better future. But failure to view the recent past from the perspective of the Iraqis themselves, led the proponents of the invasion to nurse unrealistic expectations. The war on Iraq could not go according to plan because it was based on a selective and self-serving view of the past.

There is a saying in Arabic that something that starts crooked remains crooked and the current war on Iraq is a good example. There is no solid basis in international law for this war. UN resolution 678 was passed in 1990 for the specific purpose of liberating Kuwait. It could not be interpreted in good faith as authorizing an invasion of Iraq in March 2003. Resolution 1441 of 2002 did not specifically authorize the use of force by states. It reserved the issue of Iraq for the Security Council to deal with. A second UN resolution was required to expressly authorize the use of force by states and this resolution was never passed.

Moreover, a serious international effort was well under way at the time to disarm Iraq. A team of UN weapons inspectors, headed by Dr Hans Blix, was carrying out a very thorough, effective, and professional job. They needed another three months to complete the inspection. They were not given the time. On 17 March 2003, they were rudely and brusquely elbowed out of the way by the Anglo-American invaders. Considering the contempt with which leading members of the Bush administration treated Dr Blix, he is remarkably magnanimous towards them in his book Disarming Iraq. He concedes that without the American military buildup, his inspectors would not have been allowed to return to Iraq or given so much freedom. On the other hand, he could not avoid the suspicion that UNMOVIC’s work was intended largely to fill in time until the military buildup was complete. In one of the many perversions of logic on the road to war, the unfinished work of the inspectors was used by the Americans as the pretext for military action.

Three main reasons were given to justify the war on Iraq. One was possession of Weapons of Mass Destruction that allegedly made Iraq a present and imminent threat to international security. No Weapons of Mass Destruction have been discovered. In this respect the allies went t war on a false prospectus. David Kay, the head of the Iraq Survey Group put it to Congress with blinding candour: ‘We were all wrong.’ Paul Wolfowitz admitted in an interview to Vanity Fair that the WMDs were just the most convenient ‘bureaucratic’ reason for selling the war to the public.

The second reason was the alleged link between the Ba’th Party and Al-Qaeda. No intelligence was available at the time to confirm such a link. British intelligence reports made it clear to No. 10 Downing Street that the two were in fact ideological opponents. But, as a result of the invasion of Iraq, a link that did not exist before was created. One did not have to be an expert on international terrorism to predict that this will happen. As Simon Schama had written in the Guardian, attacking Iraq was bound to turn the country into a teddy bears’ picnic for terrorists.

The third reason occupied the moral high ground: Saddam Hussein was a monster in human form at the head of an evil dictatorship. A humanitarian intervention was therefore called for to rid the Iraqi people of the monster. This description of the man and his regime is indisputable. But Saddam was always a monster, not least in the 1980s, when the West armed and supported him throughout the grueling eight-year war with Iran that he himself had started. So presenting the invasion of Iraq as an act of humanitarian intervention is disingenuous. There was a strategic decision to invade Iraq and this decision was simply dressed up in moral arguments.

The coalition in this war is very different to the coalition that Bush Senior assembled in 1990-91. That was a genuine international coalition of 33 nations, including most of the Arab states, led by the US and acting under a clear UN mandate. The 2003 coalition is best described as a cash register coalition, with American leaders saying to different countries: ‘If you support us, we will give you money, and if you don’t support us, we will turn against you.’ The CIA has been distributing bags of money from Afghanistan to Iraq in pursuit of the war on terror. CIA apparently stands for cash in advance.

Tony Blair’s main reason for taking Britain into war alongside America was the desire to preserve the special relationship and to retain some influence over American actions. Blair realized that, whatever anyone else thought, the American decision had already been made: the Americans were going to ‘do’ Iraq. The choice for Britain, as he saw it, was to back America in going to war or risk being side-lined. Blair made the decision to follow America in the face of strong opposition in the cabinet, the Labour Party, and the country. All the information that has come to light since the invasion casts doubt about the wisdom of this decision.

Robin Cook, who resigned from the cabinet in protest against the war, published a book last year with the apt title Point of Departure. The book sheds a great deal of light on the many contradictions in Blair’s thinking and actions in the lead up to the war. The greatest contradiction is that Blair always presented Britain as a bridge between the two sides of the Atlantic yet, by siding with America over Iraq, he helped to create one of the deepest rifts in the history of transatlantic relations.

In an effort to heal the rift and to breathe some life into the comatose Israeli-Palestinian peace process, Tony Blair took the lead in formulating for the roadmap. Everybody supported the roadmap: America, Britain, and the fifteen members of the European Union. They all agreed, following the invasion of Iraq, on the need for a major political initiative to solve the Palestinian problem. Blair, to his credit, used all the political capital that he had accumulated with George Bush over Iraq in mobilizing the latter’s support for the roadmap. Bush was not an enthusiast of the roadmap: he adopted it under pressure from his allies.

The roadmap was formally launched by the Quartet in May of last year. It envisaged three phases leading to an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel by 2005. The Palestinians embraced the roadmap with great alacrity. It was like a lifeline to a drowning man. They started implementing the roadmap even before it was formally announced. The Israeli position was more ambiguous. Ariel Sharon requested and received from President Bush three delays in launching the roadmap, and once it was launched, he submitted fourteen amendments that were designed to empty it of any serious political content. The Israeli Cabinet never endorsed the roadmap as such; it only voted for specific measures that were required of Israel in the first phase. There was also some outright opposition to the roadmap from ministers who are well to the right of Ariel Sharon.

The policies of the Israeli government did not change significantly following this half-hearted adoption of the roadmap. It continued with the incursions into Palestinian areas, the targeted assassinations of Palestinian militants, the demolition of houses, the uprooting of trees, the curfews, the restrictions, and the deliberate inflicting of misery, hunger, and hardship to encourage Arab migration from the West Bank. At the same time, settlement activity continued on the West Bank under the guise of ‘natural growth’ but in flagrant violation of the provisions of the roadmap.

A related and equally serious barrier to progress along the path charted by the roadmap is the so-called security barrier or wall that the Likud government is building on the West Bank. The purpose of this wall is said to be to prevent terrorist attacks on Israel, but the hidden motives behind it have as much to do with land-grabbing as with security. To build the wall Israel is expropriating land, demolishing houses, separating farmers from their fields, workers from their place of work, school children from their schools, and entire communities from their sources of water.

The wall bites deep into the West Bank with the apparent aim of crowding as many Palestinians as possible into as little territory as possible. Informed observers estimate that by the time the meandering wall is completed, it would have taken up 45-55 per cent of the territory of the West Bank and cut it up into 16 isolated enclaves. In short, the wall is paving the way to the de facto annexation of a substantial part of the West Bank to Israel thereby undermining the possibility of a genuine two-state solution.

For Ze’ev Jabotinsky, the spiritual leader of the Likud, the strategy of the “Iron Wall,” was a metaphor for dealing with the Arabs from a position of unassailable strength. In the crude hands of Ariel Sharon and his associates, however, this metaphor is fast becoming a hideous and horrendous concrete reality and an environmental catastrophe in the shape of the wall. If this wall continues to gobble up more and more Arab land, there will soon be little left to negotiate about. And in the absence of a political settlement, the dispute can only become more bitter and bloody.

Ariel Sharon’s latest gambit is the plan for a unilateral Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. Having failed both to cow or to engage the Palestinians, he seeks separation on imposed terms. Gaza is the most densely populated piece of land on God’s earth. For Israelis it is also a by-word for a hell-hole. The Hebrew expression for ‘Go to hell!’ is lekh le-azza – go to Gaza! Gaza exposes the face of Israeli colonialism in its starkest and most merciless form. There are 1.2 million Palestinian inhabitants, mostly refugees and the descendant of refugees, and 7,500 Israeli settlers, mostly farmers. The Israelis control 25 per cent of the territory and 40 per cent of the arable land.

There is some opposition to unilateral withdrawal from Gaza in the government and in the army for fear that the Palestinians would interpret it as a sign of weakness and press for further withdrawals. Sharon, however, does not intend to oblige. On the contrary, he wants to pull out of the boiling cauldron in Gaza in order to consolidate Israel’s grip on the West Bank. Unilateral disengagement is another name for Sharon’s old plan for creating Palestinian enclaves on roughly half the West Bank and annexing the rest to Greater Israel. He even had the gall to seek American approval of a plan to strengthen several key blocks of Jewish settlements in exchange for a complete Israeli pullback from the Gaza Strip and parts of the West Bank. The settlements, widely referred to in Israel as the ‘consensus settlements’, include Ma’ale Edumim, east of Jerusalem, Ariel, northwest of Tel Aviv, and the Etzion Block, south of Jerusalem.

The initial response of President Bush’s advisers to this plan was distinctly cool. They were united in resisting any formal change in America’s longtime opposition to Jewish settlements in the territories. Some of them saw Sharon’s unilateral disengagement plan as a bold move that may eventually help to launch final status negotiations. But they were concerned that ‘Gaza First’ will become ‘Gaza Last’ and eliminate the chances for a peace settlement by entrenching the occupation of the West Bank. Aron Miller, a former State Department official, warned that American endorsement of Israel’s moves to consolidate its grip on specific settlement blocks would be ‘something that mortgages the future and ultimately would undermine any remaining prospect for a two-state solution.’ America’s challenge, he said, is to modify Israel’s one-sided initiative in a way that would encourage the Palestinian and Arab governments to come to the negotiating table.

The Palestinian Authority, having embraced the roadmap, failed to come up with a credible security plan to contain the violence and curb the suicide attacks by Palestinian militants. Tony Blair singled out the PA’s failure to combat terrorism as the primary obstacle to revitalizing the peace process. He stated that the PA’s failure to meet its obligations under the first stage of the roadmap to dismantle ‘terrorist capabilities and infrastructure’ is the principal obstacle to its revival. The Palestinians protested that the US and Britain are not exerting similar pressure on Israel to meet its commitments to freeze settlement expansion, dismantle illegal outposts, and ease the occupation. They even accused Mr Blair of backtracking on his declarations a year ago that resolving the conflict was as important to Middle East peace as removing Saddam Hussein from power. Recognizing that Mr Blair played a major role in launching the roadmap, they warned that his credibility will take a severe knock if he did not keep the momentum up.

Removing Saddam Hussein from power also failed to generate the promised momentum for political reform in the Arab world. Calls for reform from within the region have become more urgent in recent years. A major landmark was the publication in the summer of 2002 of the UN-backed Arab Human Development Report in which 30 intellectuals from the region exposed the dismal failures of the Arab world. The report identified three cardinal obstacles to human development: the widening deficit in freedom, women’s rights, and knowledge. Prepared by Arabs for Arabs, the report fuelled a much-needed debate in the Arab world. But it also proved useful for American policy-makers whose foreign policy agenda included the transformation of the Middle East.

President Bush cited it in a major speech in November 2003, setting out his plans to promote democracy in the region. ‘In the words of a report by Arab scholars,’ Mr Bush said, ‘the global wave of democracy has – and I quote – “barely reached the Arab states”.’ A draft of the Greater Middle East Initiative, a series of measures to be unveiled by the US at the G8 summit of rich countries in the summer, draws heavily on the report and tries to address the three deficits identified by its authors. The American paper, published in full in the London-based Al-Hayat newspaper, is a call for sweeping economic, political, cultural, and educational reforms in the Arab world.

Arab intellectuals reacted negatively to Washington’s attempt to commandeer their self-critical report. They like the message but they totally mistrust the messenger. They claim that Washington has been selective with the report, ignoring criticism of its own policies before 9/11 of supporting authoritarian regimes that helped to breed the religious extremism that now threatened its security. Washington’s new ideas are seen as the product of the ‘new colonialism’ designed to change the values of Arab and Islamic society and to impose reform from above. They have no legitimacy in Arab eyes because they came from a power that had invaded two Muslim countries, Afghanistan and Iraq, a power that had done nothing to promote the interests of the Arab people. Arab intellectuals recognize the urgency of reform but demand ownership of the process, rejecting America’s one-size-fits-all blueprint. In short, they see America’s reform agenda as driven by American priorities and American interests.

Arab rulers are also suspicious that the Bush administration plans to push changes in the region before resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict. President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt rebuffed the US proposals for the region at a meeting with Tony Blair at Chequers on 9 March. Mubarak insisted that any modernization has to stem from the traditions and culture of the region. He also stressed that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was at the heart of the region’s problems. Making reforms but ignoring the Palestinian issue, he warned, will not produce the desired stability.

Bush administration officials, for their part, are critical of Arab governments for using the Arab-Israeli conflict as an excuse for denying democracy, freedom of expression, and other rights to their people. They have a point. Arab leaders, on the other hand, believe that Israel’s friends in Washington seek to create a string of client-states in the region who would allow Israel to retain the occupied territories. They too have a point. There is only one way to dispel this suspicion, namely, by re-engaging in the Middle East peace process and by exerting real pressure on Israel to withdraw from the occupied territories.

This brings us back to the link between Iraq and Palestine. The war on Iraq has not gone according to plan. Wars rarely do. When leaders take their countries to war, they know how the war will start but they can never know how the war will end. Saddam Hussein and his henchmen have been removed from power but the goals of democracy, security, and stability have proved persistently elusive. Today the shadow of civil war hangs over Iraq. Iraq has been converted from a country that had no links with international terrorists into a magnet for terrorists from all over the Muslim world. Regime change in Baghdad has thus been a hindrance rather than a help in the struggle against international terrorism. In particular, it heightened the threat from al-Qaeda, as most intelligence services predicted it would.

Al-Qaeda’s terrorist attack in Spain on 11 March was the European equivalent of America’s 9/11. The multiple bomb attacks on Madrid’s packed commuter trains which claimed the lives of about 200 people sent a powerful message that America’s European allies will not be immune. Spain was punished for joining what al-Qaeda calls ‘the

Crusader-Zionist alliance.’ At a summit meeting in the Azores shortly before the attack on Iraq, prime minister Jose Maria Aznar, the leader of the Popular Party, stood shoulder to shoulder with George Bush and Tony Blair. Aznar backed the war on Iraq against the will of some 90 per cent of Spaniards. In the general election of 13 March the voters ousted the Popular Party from power first for making Spain the target of Islamic extremists by its support for the Iraq war, and second for rushing to accuse the separatist Basque group ETA of the Madrid bombing. Victory went to the Socialist Party that during the campaign pledged to swap Aznar’s pact with Bush for a return to a European alliance with France and Germany. Spain’s election results could thus be interpreted as a victory for al-Qaeda. The war in Afghanistan scattered the hornets’ nest but it did not wipe it out. The war in Iraq helped to put al-Qaeda back in business.

Nor did the Anglo-American invasion of Iraq help to resolve the Palestinian problem or to promote democracy in the rest of the Arab world. To promote world peace America and Britain would have done better to try to put an end to the Israeli occupation of Arab lands than to start a new occupation of their own. They destroyed the Ba’th regime in Baghdad in three weeks but they have not persuaded the Likud government to give up one settlement in three years. However flimsy the legal justification, by resorting to military force to topple the Ba’th regime America and Britain raised great expectations. They cannot stop now. Precisely because they invested so much in Iraq, they have a moral as well as a political duty to deliver justice to the long-suffering Palestinians. Their credibility is on the line.

Avi Shlaim is a Professor of International Relations at the University of Oxford and the author of The Iron Wall: Israel and the Arab World (Penguin, 2000).
(6,920 words)

 
 
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