MIFTAH
Saturday, 18 May. 2024
 
Your Key to Palestine
The Palestinian Initiatives for The Promotoion of Global Dialogue and Democracy
 
 
 

The launching of Syrian-Israeli talks in Washington constitutes a significant shift in the course of the whole peace process with substantive implications for the future of the region.

Following intensive mediation efforts, international back-channel diplomacy, and behind-the-scenes discreet talks, the Syrian track has become the focal point of American and Arab as well as European attention.

It is quite evident that without direct American involvement and guarantees, the deadlock would not have been broken.

The US also enlisted the active support of Saudi Arabia as a major Arab factor and as a partner donor in defraying the cost of peace.

Jordanian involvement has been in evidence with King Abdallah’s early mediation efforts, while the Egyptian Foreign Minister’s visit to Syria signaled his country’s endorsement.

Within Israel, this new phase is being perceived as a strategic move that would finally lead to a breakthrough and bring the region to a new era of peace, security, and prosperity.

Thus, withdrawal from the Golan Heights will be viewed from such a perspective as an investment in peace, while simultaneously it would prepare for a negotiated withdrawal from south Lebanon. Barak then will have succeeded in extricating Israel from the morass of the “security zone” and the Hizballah toll on Israeli soldiers’ lives, hence fulfilling his election pledge to withdraw by July 7, 2000.

It does not take much intelligence to grasp the basic logic of the statement “if Syria moves, Lebanon will not be far behind,” particularly in view of the “indivisibility” of the two tracks and Syria’s involvement in Lebanon and its security.

Syrian-Israeli negotiations are clearly not proceeding from scratch or from a vacuum. Not only are they resuming from where they left off, most of the groundwork has been completed (70%-80%).

Thus the essential difference between the Syrian and the Palestinian tracks is one of degree of complexity and political will.

While the substance of the Syrian track and the details of implementation of potential agreements had been worked out through prior negotiations, the determining factor was the necessary political decision and the will to proceed.

The Palestinian track, on the other hand, had enjoyed repeated public expressions and commitments signifying the necessary historical decision, while the complexity of the issues involved and the substance of the talks (including all implementation aspects) continued to be major stumbling blocks.

Once the Syrian track began, it is expected that the resolution leading to a peace treaty will proceed at a fast pace.

The Palestinian track, however, will continue to be embroiled in the highly complex process of disentanglement and mechanisms of implementation with the aim of forging entirely new sets of relationships following the distortions, interconnections, and mentalities produced by decades of occupation.

The four-point agenda of the Syrian-Israeli talks indicates a qualitative approach to peace making—withdrawal, security arrangements, water issues, and the nature of peace.

In contrast, the agenda for final status talks involves the ideological and demographic/human issues including Jerusalem and Palestinian refugees. The settlement component is also subject to greater entrenchment and contention, given its scope and nature as well as its impact on the territorial integrity and viability of the Palestinian state.

Another basic difference between the two tracks lies in the Israeli attitude towards its respective counterpart.

On the one hand, it recognizes Syria as a sovereign state and deals with it from the premise of parity along the Egyptian and Jordanian models.

On the other hand, Israeli perceptions of their Palestinian counterparts are still distorted by the patronizing attitude of control and pressure/intimidation brought about by the disparities produced by the occupation.

Thus Israel views Palestinian statehood not as a fact but as a concession subject to Israeli approval and constraints—a fact which has tainted and undermined interim phase negotiations and implementation of agreements so far.

In addition, Israel views peace with Syria as the key to normalization with the Arab world, hence it is approaching these talks with a strategic eye on legitimization with other Arab countries, including all the benefits from such regional integration.

Israel and Syria both anticipate advantages from their agreement beyond the issue of cessation of violence and hostilities (including the Lebanese-Israeli border and the security of northern Israel).

The US seems to be the focus for most of the anticipated rewards.

Israel is expecting a massive reimbursement of US$ 18 billion in exchange for withdrawal from the Golan and the removal of settlements, plus additional funds for security rearrangements and maintaining Israel’s strategic military dominance in the region.

The advantages to Israel are expected to produce a massive economic boost with long-term implications for Israel’s prosperity.

The US will also be delivering security guarantees and is expected to take an active part in ensuring quiet and peaceful Syrian-Israeli borders, including surveillance, early-warning systems, and even peace-keeping troops.

Syria is also seeking acceptance by the international community and its removal from the much-abhorred “terrorist list” of the US.

An American seal of approval will bring about enormous economic as well as political benefits to Syria.

Primarily, it will prepare the ground for a smoother succession to Bashar Assad without a legacy of conflict and ostracism.

Syria also hopes to gain American support for upgrading and modernizing its military, and to forge a new relationship with the US free of the remnants of the cold war and the obsolete arms race.

Given the convergence of the time-pressure factor, Presidents Assad and Clinton and Prime Minister Barak, all seem bent on achieving their objective within the year, all sharing the same political carpe diem mentality.

The implications for the Palestinian-Israeli track are enormous.

All diplomatic statements have welcomed the resumption of talks, citing the usual dictum that any progress on one track will bring about progress on the other tracks.

This may be true in certain areas, mainly in establishing a precedent for withdrawal from Israeli-occupied territory, dismantlement of settlements, and relinquishing territory annexed by a Knesset bill.

The implementation of 242 and the restoration of the June 4, 1967 boundaries can be the model and precedent for the Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and Gaza.

Withdrawal from the annexed Golan Heights may presage withdrawal from the illegally annexed Jerusalem.

The dismantlement of the Golan settlements will prepare for the dismantlement of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and Gaza.

The converse argument, however, points to basic differences in the nature of the settlements—particularly with the greater ideological/religious motivation as well as the more extremist nature of the settlers themselves.

Israel also still deals with the Palestinian side from a position of patronage and hegemony, thus attempting to force Palestinian realities to fit the mould of Israeli security, territorial, and demographic priorities and concepts.

In addition, its position on UN Resolution 242 and its applicability to the Palestinian side is still ambiguous (to say the least); hence the question of full withdrawal has remained captive to Barak’s notorious “red lines.”

The question of Jerusalem combines both the ideological and political negative absolutes articulated by all Israeli governments, with a mythical consensus as well as concrete prejudicial steps and measures that have aggravated the situation even further.

Further implications for the Palestinian track include the risk of marginalization and isolation.

In spite of the argument (and the fact) of the centrality of the Palestinian question as the core of the conflict and the key to any legitimate and permanent peace in the region, it is clear that a Syrian-Israeli peace accord will take on strategic significance at the Arab, regional, and even global levels.

Even if only at the perceptual level, the peace process will be seen as a success story regardless of the ongoing difficulties on the Palestinian track.

With Syria joining the “official” peace camp, the major neighboring country that had not yet signed an agreement with Israel, the domino effect will come into play.

Significantly also, Syria has long played host to Palestinian opposition and patron of Lebanese resistance as well as the embodiment of “hard line” or “steadfast” Arab policies.

Once it reaches an agreement with Israel, not only will a general “softening” of positions ensue, but also a narrowing of the Palestinian room for maneuver.

It is expected, therefore, that more pressure will be exerted to bring the Palestinians to a quick (or premature) settlement even at the expense of substance.

With the threat of being moved to the “back burner,” some Palestinians may succumb to a false sense of urgency generated by the well known Israeli policy of playing off one track against the other.

The claims, now increasingly prevalent, that Israel cannot be expected to “pay the price of peace” in the form of simultaneous withdrawals and dismantlement of settlements on all fronts are the most dominant forms of “scare tactics” being employed in this context.

Such an unhealthy competition will be detrimental not only to Palestinian rights but also to the peace process as a whole.

A flawed and deficient agreement with the Palestinians will result in internal instability and will have a destabilizing effect on the whole region.

Pseudo- or quasi- or semi-statehood with curtailed sovereignty, fragmented demography, and diminished territoriality is not a viable or lasting solution.

Any leadership that makes concessions on Palestinian rights, especially as guaranteed by international law, will be running the risk of losing its constituency and self-negating.

Internal Palestinian empowerment and the establishment of a democratic system of governance in Palestine remain among the most crucial requirements for a comprehensive and viable peace.

Another urgent requirement is direct and substantive coordination among the tracks, particularly in the form of Palestinian-Syrian-Lebanese cooperation and joint strategies.

A candid dialogue and a shared vision require the discarding of the legacy of distrust, rivalry, narrow self-interest, and the settling of scores that has had a divisive and debilitating effect on the Arab scene as well as on the individual tracks and on the whole peace process.

An Arab summit has become imperative, to be buttressed by solid and ongoing professional structures and work plans capable of institutionalizing and sustaining cooperation and integration, whether in the efforts to bring about peace or in effecting genuine and comprehensive development.

At all costs, the Palestinian side must not be made to feel isolated and vulnerable; nor must the Palestinian issue be sidetracked as part of a short- sighted drive towards partial solutions.

A comprehensive, genuine, and permanent peace requires both an inclusive and simultaneous approach. A “mad scramble” or a “back burner” approach is equally destructive, as is piecemeal selectivity.

Peace cannot be made with one partner at the expense of the other, nor is it subject to tactical gains at the expense of strategic realities.

Ultimately, it is the Palestinian question that has long been at the heart of the conflict and instability in the region. If Israel is genuinely in search of a just and permanent peace with legitimacy for all parties involved, it must come to terms with the requirements of its solution.

The formula is not an “either-or” simplistic construct.

Peace with Syria is a significant and decisive factor. So is peace with Palestine. Complementarity, not competition, is the key to the future.

 
 
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