Few people in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip expect to see the creation of a Palestinian state within the next five years, according to a poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. 27.5 per cent of respondents believe the chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state next to Israel are medium to high, while 69.2 per cent are more skeptical.

The former British mandate of Palestine was instituted at the end of World War I, to oversee a territory in the Middle East that formerly belonged to the Ottoman Empire. After the end of World War II and the Nazi holocaust, the Zionist movement succeeded in establishing an internationally recognized homeland. In November 1947, the United Nations (UN) General Assembly passed a resolution calling for the formation of a Jewish state.

In 1948, the British government withdrew from the mandate and the state of Israel was created in roughly 15,000 square kilometres of the mandate’s land, with the remaining areas split under the control of Egypt and Transjordan. Since then, the region has seen constant disagreement between Israel and the Palestinians, represented for decades by the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). Wars broke out in the region in the second half of the 20th Century, involving Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Egypt.

Around 750,000 Palestinians fled or were forced to leave their territory during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. The "right of return"—under which Palestinians aim to re-occupy their homes in Israel—has always been a questionable point in peace negotiations. Hundreds of thousands of refugees from the war and their descendants still live in shantytown camps run by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), next to Gaza cities and towns.

During the six-day war in 1967, Israel gained control of the Sinai Peninsula, the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, eastern Jerusalem, and the Golan Heights.

Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas is currently heading the Palestinian Authority from the West Bank, endorsed by Israel and most of the Western international community. Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas has become the de-facto leader in the Gaza Strip.

In November 2007, Abbas and leaders from the United States, Israel and several Arab countries attended an international conference on Middle East affairs in Annapolis, Maryland. The meeting was brokered by United States president George W. Bush. On Nov. 27, Abbas and Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert announced they would work towards having a peace treaty signed by the end of 2008, which would include the creation of a Palestinian state.

On Sept. 16, a day before stepping down as leader of his Kadima party, Olmert referred to the so-called "right of return" of Palestinian people to territory lost in the war, saying that Israel is "willing to be part of an international mechanism that would look into the solutions for this problem, a solution within the Palestinian state, which will be home for the Palestinian nation and not within the home of the Jewish people."

Polling Data:

Now 40 years after the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, what in your view are the chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state next to the state of Israel in the next five years? Are they high, medium, low, or none existent?

Non-existent 31.2%

Low 38.0%

Medium 24.0%

High 3.5%

Not sure 3.3%

Source: Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research

Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,270 Palestinian adults in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, conducted from Aug. 28 to Aug. 30, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.