MIFTAH
Monday, 9 December. 2024
 
Your Key to Palestine
The Palestinian Initiatives for The Promotoion of Global Dialogue and Democracy
 
 
 

US secretary of state John Kerry arrives in the Holy Land this week on his fourth visit in two months amid deepening scepticism on all sides about his chances of breathing life back into the moribund peace process, and an acknowledgement by European diplomats that there is no "Plan B" in place in the event of its failure.

The British foreign secretary William Hague will also join the Middle East diplomatic merry-go-round this week, with a visit to Israel and the Palestinian territories beginning on Thursday. The focus of Hague's trip, in which he is expected to meet politicians from both sides, is to support Kerry's mission to bring the two sides back to negotiations after an impasse of almost four years.

Kerry's efforts have produced no tangible results so far, apart from both parties consenting to refrain from actions which could set back his efforts. But while the Palestinians have stuck to their agreement to postpone pressing their case for statehood at international bodies, Israel has infringed its unannounced de facto moratorium on settlement expansion with recent moves on the retroactive legalisation of four unauthorised outposts and the construction of 300 houses at Beit El.

Following his last visit, Kerry said he was working on a package to boost the Palestinian economy as part of a framework of measures. No details were given.

Israeli and Palestinian political and diplomatic sources are privately sceptical about the chances of negotiations resuming but are unwilling to publicly dismiss such a high-profile effort. "It's not going to happen. We know that, they know that, but Kerry doesn't know it yet," said one.

European diplomats are also reluctant to express confidence in the likely success of the mission, speaking instead about giving Kerry "space" and "encouragement" to pursue his efforts.

"The EU wanted American engagement in this issue, and now we should support and encourage him, and give him space to develop something," said a senior European diplomat. "We know exactly what the situation is but we are not speaking of a Plan B because we want Plan A to succeed."

Another European diplomat was blunter. "There is no Plan B, or at least not one that all 27 [EU] states can agree to. If Kerry fails, it will be up to individual countries to try to change the dynamic."

International hopes were raised when the Arab League last month spoke for the first time about a Palestinian state on 1967 borders with "comparable and mutually agreed minor swaps of the land". The statement, from the Qatari foreign minister, was the first time the League had acknowledged the possibility of some Jewish settlements in the West Bank being on Israel's side of any agreed border.

Kerry has pushed the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative – which offered normalised relations between all Arab states and Israel in return for a Palestinian state – as a basis for renewed talks. He welcomed the new statement, as did former Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert, who said: "We are speaking of an opportunity that must be seized to renew the diplomatic process."

However, Binyamin Netanyahu, the current prime minister, has not even acknowledged the move, let alone seized it as an opportunity. Referring to a Haaretz front page headline which read "John Kerry's upcoming visit to Israel is fourth attempt to push stone up the hill", one western diplomat quipped: "It's more like pushing water up hill. At least with a stone you have a chance."

Much of the secretary of state's attention will be focussed on Syria during his four-day trip to the Middle East, which includes visits to Oman and Jordan. He is expected to discuss with Netanyahu Israel's recent airstrikes on weapons stores near Damascus and the risks of such action internationalising the civil war, now into its third year.

Netanyahu has refused to rule out further action aimed at preventing advanced or chemical weapons being transferred to Islamic militants, despite the Syrian regime's threats to retaliate on the next occasion.

 
 
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