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The opening session of the Washington conference of Arab and Israeli leaders should be held on November 15. Even the most optimistic observers of the Middle East scene know the great gap that separates the minimum Arab expectations from it from what the agenda Israel has in mind.

In the United States itself, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has attracted criticism for the insufficient investment of time and energy required in the light of the past experience of negotiations to launch a meaningful and result-oriented initiative.

The effort made by her so far is a fraction of what it took to convene the Madrid conference in 1991, the Wye River summit in 1998 and the Camp David parleys that president Bill Clinton organised in the sunset hours of his presidency.

But just as Rice arrived in the region for a 24-hour visit Israel made a further move to ensure that the proposed conference does not develop enough momentum to address the real issues recently formulated by Prince Saud Al Faisal with the Arab initiative for a comprehensive settlement as its only realistic basis.

Rice might well have been thinking of this and other statements from the Arab capitals when she told reporters en route to occupied Jerusalem that "we cannot simply continue to say we want a two-state solution, we have got to start to move towards one".

In keeping with its tradition of vitiating the atmosphere on the eve of any event that would force it to seriously negotiate with the Arabs, Israel has now declared the Gaza strip a "hostile entity" that may soon face disruption of power and fuel supplies.

Israel's defence minister was reported to have said that the objective of the declaration was to "weaken Hamas" and that every passing day brought Israel closer to a large scale invasion of the Gaza Strip.

Decision

Rationalising the decision to deny power and possibly the flow of other unspecified goods into Gaza as a device to postpone a massive Israeli incursion in the Strip may have traction in some quarters in the United States; in the region it will be interpreted as yet another escalation to define the Palestinian nation in Israeli terms.

It is tantamount to reconstituting it without the population of Gaza. Considering that 120 megawatts out of the total 200 megawatts now used by this population depends on Israel, the threat marginalises it thus clearly aims at loading the dice against the Washington conference coming to grips with substantive issues of Palestinian self-determination and an across-the-board settlement with the Arabs.

This perception is reinforced by the reported air strike on a sensitive Syrian target and covert action against another in Syria.

For the Washington conference the perspectives are already starkly different. The Palestinians and the Arab states planning to join it want a "detailed framework" that includes specific timelines for substantive issues such as inviolable borders for the states of Israel and a viable and sovereign Palestine, the status of occupied Jerusalem, the refugees and mutual security guarantees for future.

Israel is vigorously engaged in convincing the United States that it should restrict itself to joint declarations that mention the core issues but do not even go as far as enunciating agreed principles of a solution, much less a timeline. Tel Aviv may not be actively pursuing the goal of Greater Israel at the moment; it is also certainly not much interested in Oslo's dream of reconciliation with the Palestinians.

Serious negotiations

Israel's reasons for avoiding serious negotiations with the Palestinians are known since the so-called Six Day war. The last few years have added a new factor. Encouraged by the neo-conservative vision of a Middle East, Israel has developed its own variant of re-constituting its politics, economy and culture.

The Middle East has to be purged of ideas and movements that threaten existing and future colonisation. It has, therefore, highlighted the role of Hezbollah and Hamas as obstacles to Washington's grand design for the region and used its success in that context to serve notice on Palestinians, the Lebanese and the Syrians that Israel will seek to pre-determine their politics.

In the case of Lebanon and Syria, there is a clear linkage with Iran which after the destruction of Iraq happens to be the only worthwhile opponent to a regional political order acceptable to Israel. Hamas offered a dream to the Palestinians that their destiny was not that of perpetual submission to Israel. This dream has to be shattered for all times to come.

Opinions vary if Hamas has always acted with the prudence that the situation demanded particularly after the Saudis had helped put together a government of national unity.

On the other hand, Mahmoud Abbas' camp has often been seen to lack the sheer artfulness with which Yasser Arafat maintained the semblance of national unity. Few months back, in a joint essay on the Makakh accord Hussain Agha and Robert Malley summed up Arafat's achievement as "the identification of man and nation, the transcendence of party politics, and the expression of tacit, unspoken consensus".

Admittedly, Mahmoud Abbas faced the challenge of a far more adverse regional environment while seeking to guide the post-Arafat transformation of the Palestinian national movement. But nothing has changed the fundamental truth that the architecture of a durable Middle East peace cannot be raised on the debris of the Palestinian yearning for self-determination.

Gaza is not just a thin strip of land under a cruel siege; it is a million people being driven to unredeemed despair. Talking about a two-state solution without these people would be like staging Hamlet without the prince.

Arab and American diplomacy must converge in healing the tragic rift in the Palestinian national movement and in not letting Israel widen it in order to doom the Washington conference to failure. Preventing the political, economic and cultural decimation of Gaza is a necessary element in the preparations for its successful outcome.

 
 
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