MIFTAH
 
 
 
Your Key to Palestine
 
 
 
 

The festivities are all but called off. The wide gathering of regional and international figures that Egyptian diplomacy had planned to assemble to celebrate the signing of a Palestinian reconciliation agreement later this month is cancelled. Palestinian disunity reigns supreme -- and it could get worse, some in Cairo fear.

Intensive diplomacy by Cairo failed to remedy the damage done to chances of Palestinian reconciliation by a decision of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (also the leader of Fatah) to defer consideration in the UN Human Rights Council of an independent report written by renowned and respected Judge Richard Goldstone on war crimes and possible crimes against humanity that Israel committed against Palestinians during its last war on Gaza in late December 2008 and early January.

Hamas was unimpressed by the Palestinian president's attempt to execute a U-turn by calling on the Human Rights Council to assemble a special session to address the report and recent Israeli violations of Muslim sanctuaries at Al-Aqsa Mosque. Talks held by a senior Egyptian envoy in Israel and Syria during the past few days to contain escalated Israeli violations at Al-Aqsa and to accommodate the concerns of the Hamas leadership based in Damascus failed also to spare the signing ceremony from cancellation.

Further complicating the Egyptian mission to save the reconciliation deal were recent statements from US Envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell to Palestinian leaders he met earlier this week during his seventh tour in the region. According to Egyptian and Palestinian sources, Mitchell told Abbas and his prime minister, Salam Fayyad, that the moment is not opportune for any form of national unity government or joint Hamas-Fatah committee to administer affairs in Gaza and the West Bank.

Sources say that Israel has successfully lobbied for opposition in Washington, both in the Congress and administration, to any Palestinian unity government.

"Today, Abbas is faced with a serious American warning that assistance funds that he desperately needs would not be channelled to his almost empty coffers if he gets into any national unity arrangement with Hamas," said an Egyptian source that asked for his name to be withheld. And according to a Palestinian source, Abbas is not exactly keen to pursue a situation that will put him together with Hamas in joint decision-making. Abbas, the same source said, is close to accepting the advice, which he gets from some of his closest advisors as well as from certain quarters in Israel and the US, to pursue the "West Bank first" path.

The same message of holding reconciliation on the backburner was conveyed to Cairo, Egyptian officials say. However, they add, there should be room for negotiation. "We appreciate the need to keep the funds going to the Palestinian Authority, but we also know very well what it means for a full-fledged separation between Gaza and the West Bank," said one diplomat on condition of anonymity. "It means for us that Gaza would be for Egypt to worry about. This is a disaster by all accounts," he added.

During their talks in Cairo this week with Mitchell, both Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul- Gheit and General Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman pressed upon the US envoy the need to avoid taking measures that might entrench the separation between Gaza and the West Bank. "This separation would spare Israel from its responsibility to provide energy and other essentials for the Gaza Strip and would also spare the West Bank from its financial duties towards Palestinians in Gaza. It would lead to a serious humanitarian crisis that Egypt (the immediate neighbour) would be called on to address," the same source said.

Egypt has also security-based concerns. The radical Islamic mood in Gaza would be bolstered if the Strip were to separate formally from the West Bank. "And it is only a matter of time before we get this radical mood transpiring in Sinai," the source added.

On Tuesday, Mohamed Dahlan, a senior Fatah official, publicly announced that Abbas would call for early elections if the reconciliation agreement were not signed. According to the Palestinian basic law, Abbas needs to call for legislative and presidential elections by 25 October -- three months before the expiry date of the Authority and Legislative Council that are currently in charge. Dahlan stopped short of saying that these elections would be exclusively held in the West Bank.

In the absence of a reconciliation deal and in light of the continued Israeli siege on Gaza, it is hard to imagine that elections could -- or would -- be conducted in the Strip. According to the terms of the reconciliation agreement that Egypt was trying to seal by 25 October, the call for elections would be announced on time late this month, but the conduct of elections would be consensually delayed to mid-June to allow for Gaza to overcome two years of isolation.

Egypt is therefore intensifying contacts aiming to secure the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, held in Gaza since June 2006, to allow for a deal between Hamas and Israel. This deal would end the Israeli siege imposed on Gaza and get pressure over Gaza off Egypt's back. Progress on this front, however, seems slow.

This week, Cairo received two Israeli envoys aiming to fast track this matter. More haggling than agreement was reported in meetings with the envoys.

On 25 October, a group of Arab foreign ministers and the secretary-general of the Arab League will meet to examine ways of addressing the worsening Palestinian situation. The meeting will bring together the foreign ministers of Arab countries neighbouring Israel, the Arab summit Troika, Saudi Arabia (the author of the Arab Peace Initiative) and other Arab countries.

"Very bleak", was how a senior Arab League official qualified the situation. "National reconciliation is challenged, the resumption of peace talks looks unlikely, and the furore over the delay of [consideration of the Goldstone Report on Gaza] is not really receding," he said. According to this same official, not much should be expected of the upcoming Arab meeting. The best that could be hoped for, he said, is the prevention of any call for elections in the West Bank only.

A session tentatively scheduled by the Human Rights Council on Friday to examine the Goldstone Report on Gaza might help reduce Palestinian anger against Abbas. It might also help Egyptian and other Arab attempts to convince all concerned Palestinian parties to give their formal and final support to the reconciliation deal on the table, collectively or independently. "This might help a little, but the discord between Hamas and Fatah is so deep that it might seriously challenge the reconciliation agreement even if signed," said the Egyptian diplomat.

 
 
Read More...
 
 
By the Same Author
 
Footer
Contact us
Rimawi Bldg, 3rd floor
14 Emil Touma Street,
Al Massayef, Ramallah
Postalcode P6058131

Mailing address:
P.O.Box 69647
Jerusalem
 
 
Palestine
972-2-298 9490/1
972-2-298 9492
info@miftah.org

 
All Rights Reserved © Copyright,MIFTAH 2023
 
Subscribe to MIFTAH's mailing list
* indicates required